Sunday, September 04, 2011

Dry slot brings brief sunshine to Alabama

As predicted in this blog a few hours ago, the visible satellite shows that the dry slot from Tropical Storm Lee (TS Lee) continues to work its way up to the AL/FL coast. We have just seen the sun break through briefly in Daphne, AL.

Plan on this slot filling in and clouds, rain, and some gusts to come back. However, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that the amount of rains that NHC/NWS/HPC continues to talk about falling will occur.

There is still a slight tornado threat (see this at the Pensacola News Journal about a touchdown east of Perdido Key at Innerarity Point) and river flooding seems a pretty sure thing.

The bottom line is that unless TS Lee does an incredible job of regenerating itself, the dire overall predictions of the NHC aren't going to happen.


TS Lee composite radar shows huge dry slot

This image shows just how much the rain has stopped - and continued rains over our area will be much less than NHC predicted yesterday.



Images show TS Lee continuing to decay

This water vapor image of TS Lee show how the hot air punch first discussed in this blog about 12-hours before the NHC mentioned it continues to destroy TS Lee. While river flooding is still a real threat, the idea that there will be continued heavy rains anywhere near those feared a couple of days ago continues to lose credibility.









Will the sun break through today - despite NHC dispatches?

Despite the shrill TS Warnings still up from the NHC, satellite and radar imagery show TS Lee is rapidly decaying and is not the threat that it is still being portrayed as in National Hurricane Center (NHC) and National Weather Service (NWS) dispatches.

The 15 - 20 inch rainfall levels are highly improbable now - in fact, a dry slot has developed that may even allow the sun to briefly break through over AL and NW FL.

Here is a visible satellite image that clearly shows the gap in clouds creating the dry slot to the west of the AL/FL area.

Saturday, September 03, 2011

All models agree TS Lee is dying

Here are the projected top wind speeds for TS Lee. Please note that there are currently NO land stations reporting sustained winds close to the ones shown here - these occur almost exclusively over the water, not land.



Wind swath map for TS Lee

Here is the latest wind swath map for Lee:


As we predicted, Lee is dying

Last night this blog was the first to note that hot, dry air from the TX coast was plowing through the cyclone and would keep it from growing. We asked how long it would take for the NHC to tell the public the same thing.

We got our answer this morning with the 10 AM CDT NHC Discussion:

"LEE IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MUCH...IF ANY...DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF VERY DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE."

Actually, that is an understatement of what is happening to Lee. It's the the SW quadrant - not a semicircle, since a semicircle is half of a circle and therefore it would be the southern semicircle, or western semicircle, the but it's better than the NHC ever did with Irene.

A look at the water vapor imagery shows that the entire "eye" of Lee is exposed. It's over for the TS because it is now making landfall and has no hope of strengthening. It's all downhill from here.

Meanwhile, out over the Gulf, there remains abundant moisture to the east of the center (we use the word center because there is no longer an enclosed "eye".).

This will continue to be pulled north and then northeast as the circulation moves north and then northeast over the next 2 - 3 days. This means that those on the east side of the circulation will continue to get rain for the next few days.

However, it is not likely to be the deluge that was advertised. The Mobile Regional Airport, an official National Weather Service (NWS) reporting station, had only 1.29" inches of rain as of the time of this posting.

In the Pensacola Bay Area, the reporting station at the Emergency Operations Center on North "W" Street had .90" and maximum gust of 22 mph, and at the Judicial Center, there was recorded .73" of rain and a maximum gust of  37 mph. Winds are averaging about 27 mph.

Despite these numbers, the NWS has issued Flood Warnings, and a Tornado Watch until 10 PM tonight for the entire area.

This is no doubt because of the moisture over the Gulf that will be pulled north today and tomorrow.

To sum up, it's going to rain, there will be some wind gusts similar to what you get with thunderstorms, and there is a chance of a low-level tornado.

We'll take another look at the progress of Lee later today.

Now a few other opinions:

Rob Lightbrown of Crown Weather:

Heavy Rainfall Threat: The main story with Lee is the continuation of very heavy rainfall amounts. Total rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches are expected across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama through Sunday night. Extensive flash flooding is likely. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected across the Florida Panhandle through Sunday night. Flash flood watches are in effect across all of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama. If you are in a Flash Flood Watch, please be alert for any flood warnings and be ready to take immediate action to save life and property if flooding occurs.

Storm Surge: The combination of a storm surge due to prolonged onshore winds and astronomical high tides will cause ocean waters to rise to 3 to 5 feet above mean sea level across southern and southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi from today through Sunday. The result will be up to 3 to 5 feet of flood water inundation along the Louisiana coast and up to 2 to 4 feet of flood water inundation along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines.

Minor storm surge flooding is expected outside of the hurricane protection levees along the shores of Lakes Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas and along the immediate Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. If you live in these areas, expect minor flooding of property and low lying roads.

Storm surge flooding is likely along the Louisiana coast with several feet of water possible in non-elevated structures or those buildings that are built on a slab. Roads along the coast, bayous and low lying areas may be closed due to several feet of water on them.. Residents along the Louisiana coast should heed evacuation advice from emergency management officials.

Wind: Tropical storm force winds with gusts to 65 to 70 mph are likely across much of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama from today through Sunday.

Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible from today through Sunday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

Dr. Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground:

The main impact from the storm on the coast thus far has been heavy rains. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, 5.88" inches of rain had fallen from Lee as of 8 am CDT this morning. Top winds were 35 mph, gusting to 55 mph. Though Lee's top winds are rated as being 60 mph, it is difficult to find any land stations that have reported sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph or greater. One station that has is at the tip of the Mississippi River Delta, where Southwest Pass measured sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 7:03 am CDT. Upper-level winds out of the southwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over Lee, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the east side of the storm.
-30-

Friday, September 02, 2011

TS Lee getting cut in half?

The latest water vapor images show that the dry, hot air off the Texas mainland is cutting TS Lee in half.

At the beginning of the loop you'll see that almost the entire expanse of TS Lee is cold, as marked by the bright magentas and reds. Now look at the western side of the storm and watch the dry air piercing TS Lee like a plow, driving into the heart of the structure, and turning the clouds all blue - which in the loop means they are warming up at an incredible rate.

This is absolutely deadly for a tropical cyclone. The ultra dry, hot air coming off the East Coast of the US when Irene was along the GA/SC line is what sliced off the southern half of the storm and turned the so-called "epic," "historic," and "ferocious," Irene into a pussycat.

Yes, the floods came inland - you always get flooding inland from any tropical cyclone - but remember that the hype was all about the strength of the winds, the coastal flooding, and the general mayhem that Irene would inflict when it made landfall near NY City. It was a weather version of The End Times.

Now what happened to Irene is happening to Lee. There remains a cold core north of where it is being cut in half, but that will prove irrelevant and soon cool down itself because it will be deprived of the wet, moist air it needs to stay alive.

This dry air flow off the TX coast is what took the power out of Hurricane Ike. Now we are seeing the same thing happen again with Lee.

The question I have is how long will it take the NHC to admit its latest weekend people magnet is going to die an ignoble death. The media is terrorized to say the things I'm writing because the vengeance factor at the NHC is vicious. Kiss-up journalists will not sacrifice their cozy relationship with the NHC to report this to the public. And they certainly aren't going to sacrifice their ratings and web hits either.

So think of this as an integrity test for both the NHC and the journalists who cover it.

But the bigger fact this demonstrates is how addicted the NHC is to its big budget computer models, none of which can react as quickly as human sight seeing the reality of what is happening to Lee. That is why it was more than 24-hours after dry air sounded the death knell for Irene that the NHC discussion finally mentioned what everyone else already knew to be true.

How long will it take them to admit the same visual reality about Lee?
-30-

Tropical Storm Lee webcam links

Webcamplaza.net
Upper Texas Coast Webcams (HurricaneCity)
Southeast Louisiana Webcams (HurricaneCity)
Louisiana Webcams
Mississippi Webcams
Alabama Webcams
Florida Panhandle Beach Cams
Bourbon Street, New Orleans Webcam
New Orleans, Louisiana Webcam #1
New Orleans, Louisiana Webcam #2
New Orleans, Louisiana Webcam #3
New Orleans, Louisiana Traffic Cams
Biloxi, Mississippi Webcam
Gulf Shores, Alabama Webcam #1
Gulf Shores, Alabama Webcam From ABC 33/40
Mobile, Alabama Webcam

Tropical Storm Lee media links

Live On Demand Weather TV
The Weather Channel Live Stream
Broadcast Coverage From Internet Partnership Radio
Broadcast Coverage From Hurricane City
Broadcast Coverage From The Weather Radio Broadcast Network
KFDM TV 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KTRE TV 9 Lufkin-Nacogdoches, Texas
KALB NBC/CBS TV Alexandria, LA
KFOL/KJUN Channel 10 Houma/Morgan City, LA
WWL-TV New Orleans, LA
WWL Radio AM870/FM105.3 New Orleans, LA
WDSU Channel 6 New Orleans, LA
WGNO ABC26 New Orleans, LA
WVUE Fox8 New Orleans, LA
NOLA.com New Orleans, LA
WLOX-TV 13 Biloxi, MS
ABC 33/40 Birmingham, Alabama
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog
WKRG News 5 Mobile, AL
NBC15 Mobile, AL
Fox10 TV Mobile, AL
WJHG 7, Panama City, FL
WMBB News 13, Panama City, FL

5-day rainfall map


Tropical Depression 13 predicted to be a real rainmaker

The obvious story about Tropical Depression 13 (TD 13) is the rain. The Pensacola Bay Area is projected to accumulate between 6 to 9 inches of rain over the 5-day Labor Day weekend and into Tuesday of next week.

But that is nothing compared to the 17 inches that New Orleans and SE LA are looking to find falling on the ground. The bulls eye for the rain is 17.1 inches at Grand Isle on the coast.

Development of TD 13 has been hindered by a low pressure system that developed about 24-hours ago to the NW of the storm on the LA coast. This caused moderate to high wind shear on the west side of the circulation, thus keeping it from maturing into a full circle wind pattern.

But water vapor imagery is now showing the low beginning to dissipate, and as it does, the winds will be able to gather strength and round out the circulation pattern.

What this could mean is that if TD 13 (which will become TS Lee) stays out over the water long enough, it could go the distance and become a hurricane before it makes landfall in what the NHC predicts will be about 48-hours from now.

Now come all the "buyer beware" warnings that the NHC doesn't include in its discussions:

First, the models are notorious for poor handling of meandering storms like TD 13. Anyone who was in the Mobile-Pensacola area when Hurricane Danny arrived - and sat - in Mobile Bay for three days will remember how the NHC predicted, day after day, that it would move out immediately. Instead, it just sat there - and finally a frustrated forecaster just admitted, "we don't know what it will do." Too bad it took three days to admit the truth.

Second, this TD has a lot of development it needs to do to become more than a moderate range TS. The center is elongated NE to SW, and that means it has to first become much more circular than it is now to hit hurricane status.

Finally, this isn't going to be about wind speed or surge - it is going to be about flooding. Fortunately - if you can say anything about a TS is fortunate - the areas it is impacting are in a severe to exceptional drought condition, so it's going to take a lot of rain to cause problems. That is why in our area the Mobile NWSFO is being so cautious about flood warnings.

Yes, I know there are coastal flood warnings up, and high surf warnings up, but I'm talking about winds and surge that cause more than the ordinary damage we see all the time from wind events that have nothing to do with tropical storms.

This storm is going to put a real damper on the Labor Day tourism in our area, since anyone who can, should cancel their reservations if the beach is the prime reason for coming. There isn't going to be any sunshine for days.

In fact, they are already flying Red Flag Warnings on Pensacola Beach. The rip currents are going to be killers, and any one with enough sense to avoid standing in the middle of an interstate at rush hour isn't going to go anywhere near the water this weekend.

Which brings up the subject of the judgment of the Pensacola Beach tourism boosters. They have water events planned for the weekend that at this time are still on "Go." Respectfully, they are asking for an incredible lawsuit if anyone gets hurt; 7 - 9 foot waves and killer rip currents should be enough to tell them to take the hit and admit this year didn't work out.

But with the loss from the BP oil spill now getting recovered with a great tourist season so far, it isn't likely the officials will be inclined to put the health and safety of participants in these contests first. After all, these are the same people telling the country the beaches were safe when they were covered in tar balls and matted oil. Greed, combined with financial desperation, will affect otherwise honest people.

The Pensacola Seafood Festival is also going to take a real hit. This is the 34th annual event, and it draws a tremendous crowd to downtown Pensacola.

But this year, there will be rains falling throughout the weekend, and unless you just like walking around in the rain, you are going to skip this year.

So if you take away the hype, what does it look like this very second?

1) TD 13 will very likely become TS Lee tonight or tomorrow.

2) How strong it will become is still a guessing game. But a hurricane is a long shot - but possible. Stay tuned on that one.

3) Wind and surge won't be the story here - it will be the flooding. And the amounts forecast to fall in the time periods that they are forecast to fall in, could overwhelm NOLA's pumping stations, and produce another inundated city. After Katrina, that would give us "All NOLA, all the time" throughout the next week.

4) The amount of rain forecast for our area will be significant, but not overwhelming considering the drought conditions we've suffered this summer.

5) Ignore the hype from the NHC and the media looking for ratings. This is going to be a rain event - and the gusts that they like to use to scare people will be nothing more than what you get throughout the year from local thunderstorms. (I gagged when I read the canned "take all steps now to protect life and property" scare words in the latest local weather statements. Unless this thing makes it to a very strong Cat. 1 hurricane, the winds will be thunderstorm quality at best inland, and those that are stronger along the coast will soon decrease going inland.)

Here are some opinions from other credible sources:

Crown Weather forecaster Rob Lightbrown:

"Tropical Depression #13 Will Meander Around For The Next Few Days & Will Bring Excessively Heavy Rainfall Amounts To The Northern Gulf Coast"

AccuWeather forecaster Alex Sosnowski:

Gulf Storm: The Next Billion-Dollar Disaster?

Weather Underground's Dr. Jeff Masters:


Real Science's Dr. Steve Goddard:

Will Tropical Storm Lee Winds Be Faster Than “Hurricane” Irene?
 -30-



Thursday, September 01, 2011

Invest 93L stirs up the Gulf

Will it become a threat to us on the north Gulf coast? Or will it be just another disorganized mess of clouds that dissolves harmlessly back into the atmosphere?

Those are the questions everyone in the Pensacola Bay Area wants to have answered as Invest 93L gathers the attention of local residents and hurricane forecasters.

The disturbance began on the tail end of a quasi-cold front. It is being sheared by southerly winds that are preventing it from ramping up - for the time being. But those winds are forecast to die down, and its chances for becoming a tropical cyclone are inching up.

The latest from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) puts the likelihood of Invest 93L becoming a tropical cyclone at 70% at 8 AM this morning.

According to Crown Weather forecaster Rob Lightbrown, "My thinking is that 93L will meander around just off of the Texas and Louisiana coast for several days and potentially become a hurricane Sunday night or Monday. The European model is downright scary as it forecasts this thing to become a significant hurricane as it makes landfall in southeastern Louisiana next Thursday night. It should be noted that this is the second model run forecast in a row that the European model develops this into a major hurricane. The UKMET model, which has the best track record at the 6 day forecast mark, forecasts 93L to slowly track onshore into southeastern Louisiana on Monday night and Tuesday.

"Given the very weak steering currents forecast next week across the northern Gulf coast, I think 93L/future Lee has the potential to track just about anywhere along the northern Gulf coast and at this point, everyone along the northern Gulf coast should closely monitor the progress of Invest 93L."

Dr. Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground blogs, "By late tonight, wind shear is expected to drop to the moderate range, below 20 knots, and 93L should begin to organize into a tropical depression. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, into Monday. There is some cold, dry air aloft that will retard this process, and I think the earliest we would see a tropical depression is Friday afternoon. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. All of the major models develop 93L near the Louisiana coast, and show a slow and erratic movement due to weak steering currents. Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains beginning this afternoon and intensifying Friday and Saturday. 

"Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31.3°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help 93L strengthen into a tropical storm. Most of the models predict 93L will have some motion to the west by Saturday, which would bring rains to the Texas coast near the Louisiana border. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, making it difficult to predict where the storm might go.

"If 93L stays over water through Tuesday, like the ECMWF model is predicting, the storm would be a threat to intensify into a hurricane. Most of the other models predict 93L will move ashore over Louisiana by Sunday, limiting the storm's development to just tropical storm strength. I think it at least 50% likely 93L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 60 mph winds along the coast of Louisiana by Sunday."

For the Pensacola Bay Area, the National Hydrological Prediction Center expects 7 - 9 inches of rain for the five day period beginning today.

We will continue to update you on Invest 93L. And please tell your friends about this blog; it is the only place I know where you will get a range of opinion, and not just the NHC party line.
-30-

Monday, November 09, 2009

Here comes Ida! - Nov. 9, 2009

I write this with mixed feelings - I recognize Ida is a tropical storm and deserves a certain amount of respect, but at the same time, I feel that by the time it gets to us on the north Gulf coast, there won't be a lot left to it - making all the focus and disruption it is causing somewhat disconcerting. Here's why:

1) The shear is eating Ida's lunch . . . and dinner, and everything else. It's debatable whether there will be much left of Ida by the time she comes ashore.

2) The large variation between the last 2 forecast maps tells me that the disruption in the storm caused by the shear is making tracking the eye very difficult - the NHC folks said as much in the 3 PM Discussion ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/092056.shtml? )

3) The move means Santa Rosa is out from under the gun - if the move stays in place. Any time you see big jumps in the track as we just saw now, that means the models are very unreliable. Just as it moved about 75 - 100 miles west from this last forecast and the one preceding this one, so it can move back again to landfall near Garcon Point. What it means to you: be sure you check tonight for the latest on the storm.

4) As for Escambia County (FL), you are in a slightly worse situation because now you are east of the eye. But with the disruption that the shear winds are putting on Ida, it really is questionable how much the eye reflects the worst of the storm. With the decoupling of the surface eye from the mid and upper level centers of low pressure, it appears we will get the worst when all the current rainbands now washing across us continue their track.

I'll have another update this evening, but in short summary, this is nothing to panic about. The disruption, combined with the shear, mean that Ida will be a big rainmaker, with some winds, but nothing to get distraught about.
-30-




As you can see for yourself from this water vapor image, there is almost nothing left of Ida.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

A note to Houston Chronicle readers

I posted this on your newspaper's site:

Two things saved your area, and 3 monster problems will soon arrive:

1) Those 2 hot, dry days preceding Ike fed that hot, dry air into the western semicircle of Ike. This dry air kept Ike from spinning up into its predicted Cat3/4 forecast. It disrupted the center core formation all way up to its landfall. This kept wind speeds and surge heights down - way, way, down from what it almost became. Chalk that up to "An Act of God."

2) Had Ike made landfall in its final Cat 2 form just 20 miles further southwest, meaning with its northeastern quadrant impacting Galveston, Galveston Bay, and Houston, you would have experienced the National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) Houston-Galveston's prediction of "certain death." The storm surge was about half predicted, and this, combined with its final impact point saved everyone's soul from "certain death."

The only reason anyone is alive on that island is because of the storm's inability to spin up, and its position too far north of the "sweet spot" the NHC feared it would impact.

The lesson you should learn from this is that if this is what a Cat 2 can do, just think how much more destruction you will get when a strong Cat3/4 does hit you where it hurts the most.

Now comes your next incredible challenges: If you think cleaning up is it, you are way too short-sighted. That is nothing compared to what comes next.

1) You have people who are, effectively, unemployed, and too poor to pay for emergency housing. What are they going to do for the next 2 weeks? And what are you going to do when they start complaining that whatever you do isn't enough?

2) You have the New Orleans' "criminal's delight" effect: No electricity means no burglar alarms, no security lighting, no reliable phones - you get the idea. Your police forces will tire and they will be spread too thin to effectively control the criminals - time to put out the armed National Guard troops now, with state police powers. The criminals will be out in force very, very soon.

3) The second New Orleans' effect will be demands that government pay for the losses from those without flood insurance. Even hotter will be the New Orleans' effect from those in public housing and subsidy programs that you rebuild their residences at no charge to them.
-30-

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Santa Rosa County Ike Update #2

Hurricane Ike Update #2
September 11, 2008
2 PM CDT

Hurricane Ike

Weather

We are currently under a coastal flood warning.

Tides are expected to be 3-5 feet. Santa Rosa County is already 2' above normal and high tide tomorrow is somewhere around sunrise. We can expect more of the flooding conditions, possibly worsening at high tide tomorrow morning. Water should start receding tomorrow afternoon.

Deadly rip currents and surf conditions.

Significant wave heights 15 to 20 feet near shore and 20 to 25 feet or more well offshore will continue overnight

A wind advisory is in effect today for the coastal zones for sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts.

Actions by Santa Rosa County

The declaration of local state of emergency was signed at 10 a.m. this morning. A declaration will allow the county to implement protective actions if needed.

Road Closures

Pearson Road south of dirt portion and north of Mary Garzon Way in Avalon

All roads west of Ward Basin and south of Blackwater Drive in East Milton

All of Dolphin Road in Avalon

Ganges Trail south of Hindu in Tiger Point

Andrew Jackson Drive in Floridatown

South Garcon Point Road south of Katie Street in Garcon Point

Gulf Boulevard from South Carolina through much of the National
Seashore on Navarre Beach

All of West Madura Road. The storm water lift station has been turned off until the storm surge subsides.

Sand Bags

Sand and sand bags are available at the following sites/times. Residents should bring shovels and be prepared to fill and load their own bags. There is a 25-bag limit per vehicle.

Public Works Department (bags only)- 6075 Old Bagdad Highway on Friday, 7 a.m. - 3:30 p.m., Corner of Carroll Road and Pine Forest Road (sand only), anytime while supplies last.

Beach Conditions

Beach goers, swimmers and surfers should heed red flag warnings and stay out of the water.

Waves are over topping the eroded dune system on the west end of Gulf Boulevard. Erosion continues along the entire dune system with severe erosion on the west end.

Mariners should heed small-craft warnings and remain in port.

City of Gulf Breeze

As a result of storm surge from Hurricane Ike in combination with peak monthly and daily tidal patterns, Gulf Breeze is experiencing some storm surge related flooding along low-lying waterfront properties. Specifically, these include sections of Soundview Trail, Deer Point Drive as well as Shoreline Park South.

Affected property owners should expect re-occurrence of flooding tides over the next day or so until the influence of hurricane Ike dissipates.

Shoreline Park South Boat Ramp is closed as the entire parking lot is under water.

City of Milton

Sections of the Riverwalk boardwalk are flooded.
-30-

How bad will it be? NWSFO Houston-Galveston issues warning of "certain death."

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT...
CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX1139 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA AND GALVESTON BAYS...15 TO 20 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND...12 TO 16 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES... WILL BE INUNDATED DURING HIGH TIDE.

PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH.

MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED.

WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY.

NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER.

ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF.

WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

...WINDS...

VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED.

HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJORDAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF.

MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLYTO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS.

OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.

NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED.

UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.

PERSONS SHOULD PREPARE THEIR PROPERTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS. SECURE OR REMOVE ANY LOOSE ITEMS SURROUNDING YOUR PROPERTY WHICH COULD BE BLOWN AROUND BY TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. TRIM TREES NEAR YOUR PROPERTY.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

MOST MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE. SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED.

HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TOSHINGLES...SIDING...AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT.UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOMEAIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY.

DOZENS OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS.

MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2 PM CDT.
-30-

NWSFO Mobile-Pensacola issues Wind Advisory

Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...HURRICANE IKE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES WEST NORTHWEST AND SENDS STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AS HURRICANE IKE CHURNS WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF...THE OUTER FRINGES OF ITS WIND FIELD WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT...DIMINISHING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE... FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...
BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...
PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...
NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO

1217 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH. IN ANY SQUALLS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE RAPIDLY WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH...
MAINLY IN SQUALLS THAT DEVELOP...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ISLANDS AND THE BEACHES.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION ON ANY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES THAT RUN IN A NORTH AND SOUTH DIRECTION.
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Escambia County (FL) EOC Update #2

Date: September 11, 2008
Time: 12:15 p.m.

Escambia County- Possible Coastal Flooding due to Hurricane Ike

Escambia County Emergency Management Officials and the Santa Rosa Island Authority are issuing the following safety information due to hazardous conditions along our beaches and waterways.

Ø Extremely rough surf conditions exist at the beaches.
Ø Red flag conditions at both beaches prohibit swimming and surfing in the gulf.
Ø People are reminded to stay out of the water and away from the shoreline.
Ø Tides are expected to be 3 to 5 feet above normal.
Ø The beaches could experience coastal flooding throughout the day.
Ø Low lying areas along the bays and bayous could also experience flooding throughout the day.

Ø Current Flooded Streets:

o Pensacola Beach
Ø 900 Block of Aero
Ø Corto Drive
Ø Largo Drive
Ø 220 Panferio Drive
Ø 1300/1312 Rio Vista
Ø Entrada 1
Ø Entrada 2
Ø Bahia Paz Complex
Ø Walkover 27
Ø 900 - 1100 Ariola Drive
Ø Fort Pickens Gate West
Ø Bridge to EPA Lab is nearly underwater

o Perdido Key
Ø 1400 Block River Road
Ø Gongora Drive
Ø Siguenza Drive

o Pensacola
Ø 17th Avenue at railroad crossing

Escambia County (FL) EOC statement

Date: September 11, 2008
Time: 9:00 a.m.

Escambia County- Possible Coastal Flooding due to Hurricane Ike

Escambia County Emergency Management Officials and the Santa Rosa Island Authority are issuing the following safety information due to hazardous conditions along our beaches and waterways.

Extremely rough surf conditions exist at the beaches. Red flag conditions at both beaches prohibit swimming and surfing in the gulf. People are reminded to stay out of the water and away from the shoreline.

Tides are expected to be 3 to 5 feet above normal.

The beaches could experience coastal flooding throughout the day.

Low lying areas along the bays and bayous could also experience flooding throughout the day.

Flooding Safety Information

When driving, always be aware that the road bed under flood waters may be severely damaged.

NEVER drive through flooded roadways. Remember that it takes only two feet of water to carry away a vehicle, including pickups and SUVs.

When walking, do not attempt to cross flowing streams. Remember that it takes only six inches of rushing water to knock an adult off his feet.

If your vehicle stalls, get out immediately and go to higher ground.

Be extra cautious at night, when it is harder to see possible flood dangers.

These four words could save your life: TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
-30-

Santa Rosa County declares State of Emergency

From the Santa Rosa County EOC:

Hurricane Ike Update #1
September 11, 2008
Hurricane Ike

Weather

We are currently under a coastal flood warning.

Deadly rip currents and surf conditions can be expected.

Significant wave heights 15 to 20 feet near shore and 20 to 25 feet or more well offshore will continue overnight

A wind advisory is in effect today for the coastal zones for sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts.

Road Closures

Andrew Jackson Drive in Floridatown

South Garcon Point Road south of Katie Street in Garcon Point

Gulf Boulevard from South Carolina through much of the National
Seashore on Navarre Beach

Sections of Madura Road in Tiger Point and the adjacent cul-de-sacs.

The stormwater lift station has been turned off until the storm surge subsides.

Sand Bags

Sand and sand bags are available at the following sites/times. Residents should bring shovels and be prepared to fill and load their own bags. There is a 25-bag limit per vehicle.

Public Works Department (bags only)- 6075 Old Bagdad Highway on Friday, 7 a.m. - 3:30 p.m., Corner of Carroll Road and Pine Forest Road (sand only), anytime while supplies last.

Beach Conditions

Beachgoers, swimmers and surfers should heed red flag warnings and stay out of the water.

Waves are overtopping the eroded dune system on the west end of Gulf Boulevard. Erosion continues along the entire dune system with severe erosion on the west end.

Mariners should heed small-craft warnings and remain in port.

City of Gulf Breeze

A few houses on pilings along Deer Point Drive and Soundview Trail have water under them.

Soundview Trail has water over the road in two places and cones and barrels are being placed to slow traffic.

Shoreline Park South Boat Ramp is closed as the entire parking lot is under water.

City of Milton

Sections of the Riverwalk boardwalk are flooded.
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Thursday, August 11, 2008 NWSFO Warnings

Here is the latest from the National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) Mobile-Pensacola:

Coastal Flood Warning COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL1018 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...HURRICANE IKE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BRINGING COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SEAS...AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS TO THE GULF COAST...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM CDT SATURDAY...
...A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND TO DESTIN...
HURRICANE IKE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF ON FRIDAY. IKE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LAND FALL OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...SOUTH OF GALVESTON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS...HIGH SEAS AND DANGEROUS SURF FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BEACHES FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND TO DESTIN. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...BECOMINGSOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS IKE MOVES MORE TO THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE SWELLS AND STRONG WINDS HAS ALREADY CAUSED COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ALONG AREA BEACH FRONTS WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF WATER COVERED ROADS AND INSTANCES OF MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-112330-/O.EXT.KMOB.CF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080913T1700Z//O.EXT.KMOB.SU.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080913T0000Z/LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-1018 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT SATURDAY......HIGH SURF WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY...
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT SATURDAY. THE HIGH SURF WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY.
LARGE SWELLS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS HAS RESULTED IN RISING WATER A FEW FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...PRODUCING PERIODS OF COASTAL FLOODING ALL ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE EFFECT OF THIS FLOODING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN MOBILE COUNTY.
MOBILE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND IS FLOODED AND THE NORTH ENTRANCE TO THE DAUPHIN ISLAND BRIDGE HAD WATER SPLASHING ON TO THE ROADWAY. HIGHWAY 90 ON THE MOBILE BAY CAUSEWAY IS ALSO EXPERIENCING FLOODING.
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF MOBILE BAY IN LOWER LYING AREAS AND RESIDENTIAL YARDS ALONG INLAND WATERWAYS SUCH AS DOG RIVER AND BAYOU SARA.
BALDWIN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS THAT WEST BEACH...FORTMORGAN...FLASH ISLAND AND COUNTY ROAD 1 HAD WATER COVERING THE ROADWAY. IN THESE AREAS WATER WAS COMING UNDER HOUSING STRUCTURES ON STILTS.TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL ALLOW THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE FRIDAY MORNING.RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED ROADS.
ESCAMBIA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS SOME WATER ON VIA DE LUNA STREET BETWEEN PENSACOLA BEACH AND NAVARRE. IN SANTA ROSA COUNTY ALONG ESCAMBIA BAY...WATER WAS APPROACHING SOME RESIDENTIAL AREAS. GULF BREEZE SHORELINE PARK HAD WATER. IN OKALOOSACOUNTY...HIGHWAY 98 ON OKALOOSA ISLAND HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO WATERON ROAD AND LUNUS BEACH DRIVE WAS CLOSED IN DESTIN.
LARGE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK ON THE SAND BARS FROM JUST OFFSHORE UP TO A MILE OFFSHORE. WAVES 10 TO 15 FEET WILL BREAK ON THE SAND BARS WITH SMALLER BUT STILL POWERFUL BREAKERS ON THE BEACHES. THIS ENHANCES THE RISK OF MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO NOT DRIVE ACROSS WATER COVERED ROADS. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN.
A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS...BATTERING WAVES WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS...AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS.
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
High Surf Warning COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL1018 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...HURRICANE IKE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BRINGING COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SEAS...AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS TO THE GULF COAST...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM CDT SATURDAY...
...A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND TO DESTIN...
HURRICANE IKE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF ON FRIDAY. IKE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LAND FALL OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...SOUTH OF GALVESTON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS...HIGH SEAS AND DANGEROUS SURF FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BEACHES FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND TO DESTIN. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...BECOMINGSOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS IKE MOVES MORE TO THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE SWELLS AND STRONG WINDS HAS ALREADY CAUSED COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ALONG AREA BEACH FRONTS WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF WATER COVERED ROADS AND INSTANCES OF MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-112330-/O.EXT.KMOB.CF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080913T1700Z//O.EXT.KMOB.SU.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080913T0000Z/LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-1018 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT SATURDAY......HIGH SURF WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY...
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT SATURDAY. THE HIGH SURF WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY.
LARGE SWELLS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS HAS RESULTED IN RISING WATER A FEW FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...PRODUCING PERIODS OF COASTAL FLOODING ALL ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE EFFECT OF THIS FLOODING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN MOBILE COUNTY.
MOBILE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND IS FLOODED AND THE NORTH ENTRANCE TO THE DAUPHIN ISLAND BRIDGE HAD WATER SPLASHING ON TO THE ROADWAY. HIGHWAY 90 ON THE MOBILE BAY CAUSEWAY IS ALSO EXPERIENCING FLOODING.
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF MOBILE BAY IN LOWER LYING AREAS AND RESIDENTIAL YARDS ALONG INLAND WATERWAYS SUCH AS DOG RIVER AND BAYOU SARA.
BALDWIN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS THAT WEST BEACH...FORTMORGAN...FLASH ISLAND AND COUNTY ROAD 1 HAD WATER COVERING THE ROADWAY. IN THESE AREAS WATER WAS COMING UNDER HOUSING STRUCTURES ON STILTS.TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL ALLOW THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE FRIDAY MORNING.RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED ROADS.
ESCAMBIA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS SOME WATER ON VIA DE LUNA STREET BETWEEN PENSACOLA BEACH AND NAVARRE. IN SANTA ROSA COUNTY ALONG ESCAMBIA BAY...WATER WAS APPROACHING SOME RESIDENTIAL AREAS. GULF BREEZE SHORELINE PARK HAD WATER. IN OKALOOSACOUNTY...HIGHWAY 98 ON OKALOOSA ISLAND HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO WATERON ROAD AND LUNUS BEACH DRIVE WAS CLOSED IN DESTIN.
LARGE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK ON THE SAND BARS FROM JUST OFFSHORE UP TO A MILE OFFSHORE. WAVES 10 TO 15 FEET WILL BREAK ON THE SAND BARS WITH SMALLER BUT STILL POWERFUL BREAKERS ON THE BEACHES. THIS ENHANCES THE RISK OF MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO NOT DRIVE ACROSS WATER COVERED ROADS. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN.
A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS...BATTERING WAVES WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS...AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS.
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL543 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121100-CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-543 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTMISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HURRICANE IKE MOVES WEST NORTHWEST OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 15 TO 20 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 20 TO 25 FEET OR MORE WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI BORDER WEST TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATER TODAY.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES FROM MOBILE COUNTY TO OKALOOSA COUNTY FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
DUE TO THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND LARGE LONG PERIODSWELLS...TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM THIS MORNING. COASTAL FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS MORNING FROM SEVERAL LOCATIONS FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND TO NEAR NAVARRE FLORIDA. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MOBILE COUNTY TO OKALOOSA COUNTY. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ON AREA BEACHES TODAY. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HURRICANE IKE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS HURRICANE IKE MOVES FURTHER WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCALAREA...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER ON FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL ZONES. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FRIDAY AS TIDE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON FRIDAY MORNING...LIKELY SENDING WATER ONTO THE MORE FLOOD PRONE ROADWAYS ALONG THE BEACHES AGAIN AND ACROSS THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ONFRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON AREA BEACHES AGAIN FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER REPORTS OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE APPRECIATED
$$

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

How bad might Ike be? Read this description of wind damage from NWSFO Houston

It reads like an end-of-the-world novel. What is getting ready to hit TX is truly awesome in its power, and terrifying in its might . . . if the local statement below issued at 7 PM CDT by the NWSFO Houston-Galveston comes fully true. Read it, slowly, to allow its horrible images - its destructive reality - form in your mind. There but for the Grace of God go we . . .

...WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 3 AM FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND BY 2 PM ON FRIDAY WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.

INLAND...WINDS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE NEARING 25 TO 40 MPH SUSTAINED MAKING ELEVATED ROADWAYS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS.

SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 8 PM FRIDAY NEAR THE EYEWALL WHICH IS FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE INTO MATAGORDA COUNTY.

IN CLOSE TO THE EYE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND ALL MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION BEING DESTROYED OR SEVERELY DAMAGED. MODERATE TO MAJOR DAMAGE OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCLUDE FAILURE OF UP TO ONE HALF OF ALL GABLED ROOFS.

IN ADDITION....UP TO ONE QUARTER OF EXTERIOR WALLS WILL FAIL. ALUMINUM AND LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL ROOFS WILL BE TORN OFF BUILDINGS AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS. PARTIAL ROOF AND EXTERIOR WALL FAILURES ARE LIKELY AT LOW RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION.

MOST WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT...WITH OTHER MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE POSSIBLE DUE TO SWAYING.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL MAJOR DAMAGE...AS WELL AS INJURIES AND A FEW FATALITIES.

NEAR TOTAL POWER LOSS IS EXPECTED. UP TO ONE HALF OF ALL POWER POLES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN...AND HUNDREDS OF TRANSFORMERS WILL POP.

THE AVAILABILITY OF POTABLE WATER WILL BE DIMINISHED AS FILTRATION SYSTEMS BEGIN TO FAIL. NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THOUSANDS OF TREES BEING SEVERELY DAMAGED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF ALL HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL SNAP OR BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED GROUND.UP TO ONE HALF OF HEALTHY LARGE TREES WILL SNAP OR BE UPROOTED.

MOST NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE WIPED OUT.

LIVESTOCK LEFT OUTSIDE WILL BE INJURED...SOME CRITICALLY. A FEW LIVESTOCK DEATHS ARE LIKELY.
-30-

Saturday, September 06, 2008

Crown Weather discussion outlines a possible Florida Panhandle landfall

Here's the discussion from Crown Weather:

Hurricane Ike: Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Ike early this morning continue to find a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane. They also indicated that Ike has a closed 24 mile diameter eye and a central pressure of 982 millibars. Although northerly shear continues to affect the hurricane, it does not appear to be affecting the inner core convection as much as it was previously.

All of the intensity guidance continue to indicate that the shear will decrease by late tonight or tomorrow morning, which should allow for some strengthening before Ike moves close to the north coast of Cuba or even over the Florida Straits on Monday through Tuesday. After Monday night and Tuesday, Ike is forecast to track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico where conditions appear rather conducive for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico and Ike has the potential to be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday and Thursday.

Of course, any slight deviation north or south of its current forecast track will either allow for more strengthening over water or a longer period of weakening over land. So, at this point, it appears Ike will strengthen to potentially Category 4 strength before tracking near the north coast of Cuba. The amount of weakening that Ike undergoes highly depends on how much interaction the hurricane has with the island. If Ike tracks along the north coast of Cuba, then it would be knocked down to Category 2 strength. However, if Ike tracks through the Florida Straits, then little or no weakening would occur and the Florida Keys would be exposed to a very powerful hurricane.

It should be noted that I am looking more towards a track that takes the hurricane over the Florida Straits just north of the northern coast of Cuba. Should this occur, Ike will likely not weaken much as it tracks through the Florida Straits and this puts the Florida Keys at a significant risk from a major hurricane. Please read more about my thinking on the forecast track further on down this discussion.

Ike is tracking west-southwest at a forward speed of 16 mph within the deep layer flow of a strong ridge of high pressure digging southwestward over the Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

The global models are forecasting that the ridge of high pressure will shift to a more zonal pattern during the next 24 to 36 hours which will cause Ike to move in a more westward fashion. Afterward, model guidance indicates that the southwest extension of the ridge of high pressure over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida will erode just enough to induce a gradual turn toward the northwest by Tuesday and Wednesday.

This is a lot of uncertainty in the models as to how close Ike will approach the northern coast of Cuba. In fact, the two hurricane models, the GFDL and HWRF models, actually bring the hurricane over the island in 36 hours. Without question, the particular track that the GFDL and HWRF models are suggesting could have a significant impact on Ike's intensity.

There are two scenarios that may occur with Ike, and each are equally likely to happen:

Scenario 1 is that Ike turns to the west and misses the north coast of Cuba and tracks either through the Florida Straits or the lower Florida Keys as a upper end Category 3 to a Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday. After that, the extension of the ridge would erode allowing for a northwestward and then northerly track to potentially impact the west coast of Florida or the Florida Panhandle late next week.

Scenario 2 is that Ike tracks further south like the model guidance is trending towards and Ike tracks across northern Cuba or perhaps even over the entire length of the island. This track would knock the hurricane down from Category 3 or 4 strength to at most a Category 1 hurricane. After that, Ike would turn more northwestward and track through the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen slowly as its inner core could be severely disrupted by the island of Cuba.

With Scenario 2, a landfall somewhere between Louisiana and the Texas coast would be more possible late next week as a Category 2 or perhaps a Category 3 hurricane.

I am going to go out on a limb here, and state that I am personally leaning much more towards Scenario 1. The key to the future track of Ike is what kind of weakness is going to be present when the hurricane is near Cuba in a couple of days and also how far south the ridge of high pressure pushes Ike west-southwest. 2 days ago, the models had way overdone the trough of low pressure entering the center of the United States, thus the outputs were heavily favoring South Florida or a recurve out to sea.

Then, yesterday, many of the models caught on, but have overdone the lack of a weakness of high pressure, thus erroneously forecasting a elongated ridge axis oriented east to west to the north of Ike, inducing a track right across Cuba or even south of the island.

My personal feeling is that a track north of Cuba through the Florida Straits or perhaps even right along the northern coast of Cuba is the most likely scenario. Therefore, it appears that we may either have a very strong hurricane tracking through the Florida Straits on Tuesday that does not weaken at all or a very strong hurricane that tracks right along the northern coast of Cuba that weakens somewhat due to land interacting. Either case, the latest indications are that tropical storm force winds will begin affecting the Florida Keys as early as Monday night.

It should be noted that it is way, way too early to be sure where on the Gulf Coast Ike could make landfall. That landfall possibility highly depends on the track of Ike over the next 2 to 3 days. If Ike tracks through the Florida Straits or the Florida Keys, like I am currently thinking, then a landfall near the Florida Panhandle or the west coast of Florida would be more likely.

However, if Ike tracks across Cuba, then a landfall further west in the Gulf of Mexico, from Louisiana to the Texas coast would be more likely.

The Florida Keys are highly vulnerable to hurricanes, and are at a great risk from Ike. There is only one road connecting the Keys to the mainland and it requires 48 to 72 hours to evacuate the Florida Keys.

There will be a mandatory evacuation for all visitors starting this morning. The Monroe County Office of Emergency Management says visitors must leave starting at 9 a.m. this morning. A phased evacuation for residents will start Sunday morning. Key West and the lower Keys will be evacuated first. The middle and northern Keys will follow later in the day.

All interests in the Bahamas, in south Florida and in the Florida Keys should continue to pay very close attention to the progress of Ike and start thinking about what actions you will take when Hurricane Watches and Warnings are posted for your location. For the latest information about Ike, including watches and warnings, please visit our Hurricane Ike Page.

The next scheduled tropical weather discussion will be issued by 9 am EDT Sunday morning. I may try to issue an update regarding the latest information about Hurricane Ike sometime this evening.
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"I Like Ike?" Well, not this time.

We are in one of those situations when the 5-day forecast talks about Ike in the Gulf, and at the same time tells you that 5-day forecasts are subject to big errors - you get the anxiety, and then you're told not to be anxious; it's a bit of an approach-avoidance dilemma.

The headlines scream, "All Eyes On Ike." OK, that qualifies are a magnet to pull you into the anxiety.

It's followed by, "If Ike turns into the Gulf through the Florida straits." If it doesn't thread the needle, everything concerning The Heart of Hurricane Alley changes. (Hmmm, think the Chamber of Commerce will make that our new local slogan as part of it's "feel good" about the economy campaign: "Pensacola, the Heart of Hurricane Alley!")

As things stand this morning, the models continue to nudge further west with each run. That's a good thing for us; for example, the drift to the south and southwest that Gustav did for 3 days prior to getting picked up and driven northwest by the steering currents meant it went further west than it would have gone without that westward drift.

Another note to keep in mind about the models: the faster the tropical cyclone's movement, the more accurate they become.

The reason is how the models work. Most of the models you see are used year-round as global forecasting tools; a hurricane, while big and fearsome to us, is a very small percentage of the total global weather pattern.

Fronts, and continental sized pressure systems move very quickly; it is nothing for us to see fronts move through our area at 35 - 45 mph. When a hurricane or other tropical cyclone slows down below 10 mph, the models have trouble with such a slow speed. They are built to give movement to everything, and having something stall within their global view causes all sorts of problems with them.

That is why, once a storm gets up to 10 or more mph in speed, the models become more accurate. Under that speed, they become increasingly inaccurate as the storm's speed drops below 10 mph. At a speed of 4 mph or less, they are almost useless.

But the problem comes from the need to forecast something - movement even when real-time and near real-time data clearly shows the models are being flummoxed by the storm's stagnant behavior. This is the aspect for watching how a storm will move that you need to keep in mind: the slower the speed of the system, the less reliable the model's forecasting ability. The benchmarks are over 10 mph and up gives increasingly accurate forecasts; dropping down from 10 mph give increasingly inaccurate forecasts. At 4 mph and less, they are highly inaccurate.

For those who want to see this for yourself, go back to Fay when it was south of Cuba, or Gustav when it was just off the Haitian coast. For a local example see Danny in 1997 sit in Mobile Bay for 3 days, and read the increasing frustration from the NHC after 24 "never came true" forecasts.

Here is what we suggest you consider now with Ike:

1) It's all in the turn. When it takes place, and how far westward is its track when it begins to turn to the north/northwest will determine our future experience with Ike.

2) You've heard of steering currents. They are high pressure systems that hurricanes travel along the edge of in their journey. How the high pressure system north of Ike behaves will determine where Ike goes.

3) This far out in time, anywhere from south Florida to Texas could become Ike's target.

4) It will be Monday or Tuesday before we can reasonably forecast Ike's target.

5) The faster Ike travels, the more accurate the storm models.

6) The Weather Channel, and your local forecaster are parrots for the NHC forecast. Ask your lawyer why - it's all about liability. So long as they report, and do not forecast, they are covered. In other words, they are no more accurate than the NHC because they are an extension of the NHC in that sense.

7) The information I broadcast on WEBY AM-1330 is prepared in consultation with the local managers of the Emergency Operations Centers for Escambia County (FL) and Santa Rosa County, and the National Weather Service Forecast Office Mobile-Pensacola. In the case of Gustav, I read back to them what I was going to put out on the air, and got their agreement I was "on message" for what they wanted the public to get.

With Gustav, I kept telling people not to be complacent about the hurricane because it could make a 20 - 50 mile adjustment to the east and those winds that covered south Baldwin and Mobile counties would then cover us.

It is the message the parties above wanted you to hear so that you wouldn't just write the storm off without staying alert to those possibilities. I'd like to remind all of you that the cut-off point for the Hurricane Warning was the county line between Escambia County (FL) and Baldwin County. We were on the edge of the hurricane-possible conditions.

We will always have people who call the game after it's played. Gustav went on to LA, and it stayed pretty much on target with the models. They come back mocking the message of the NWSFO and the EOC's that I carried to you.

Please don't let these immature personalities affect your thinking. Their need for attention through personal attacks comes from troubles deep inside their souls. You can be sure that they are not mocking because of their interest in your safety; they are troubled with many problems and if you read all that that they write - while hiding behind a screen name so they aren't publicly accountable for their public remarks - you'll quickly see these are people who are angry about everything in life.

Yes, they are troubled souls. Don't let their troubles cloud your safety.

We'll have more up this afternoon after the 4 PM CDT discussion from the NHC.
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Sunday, August 31, 2008

Gustav officially begins

IMPORTANT NOTE: We are going to be posting a lot of information from the Santa Rosa County, and Escambia County (FL) EOCs on the Your Link to Life(tm) Gulf Hurricanes Blog. It then posts on the WEBY AM-1330 homepage. You’ll find the web addresses at the bottom of this email. Check both sites – MAKE SURE YOU GET ALL THE INFORMATION TO PROTECT YOUSELF, YOUR FAMILY, AND YOUR PROPERTY!

THUNDER! Mark your sheet on Gustav – the first thunder in the Pensacola Bay Area occurred at 3:10 PM CDT (2010Z). It’s officially beginning!


From the Your Link to Life(tm) Gulf Hurricanes Blog source, “Deep Background.”


TROPICAL UPDATE
Sunday, Aug. 31, 2008
----------------------------------------------
Time stamp: 5:07 a.m. Central Time
BIG GULP SIZE: 32 oz. Coke Cola

GUSTAV: HIGH NOON

GUSTAV: "Staff of God"
You can get "whacked" by a walking staff,
or a walking staff can help you to the Promised Land.

NEW ORLEANS:
Somebody's home is not going to be there Tuesday.

HOW ABOUT THIS?
Pensacola Bay Area south of I-10 is forecast to have gusts up to 55 mph on Monday. Those will almost only occur on the beaches.
If Gustav shifts to the east, the wind field shifts with it. Right now, Baldwin County. Which is under a Hurricane Warning – we have a Tropical Storm Warning – to have gusts up to 65 mph on the beaches and inland covering the bottom third of the county. If Gustav shifts its landfall 30 miles east, then those winds will shift with Gustav and be over us.

That's tropical weather. Always sleep lightly when it is coming ashore in the pre-dawn hours. Check the location and movement of the storm tonight about 1 AM.

WHY? WHAT DO WE HAVE GOING FOR US?
1. Gustav's forward speed.
2. Faster it goes, the faster it punches through the eastern side of a blocking pressure system.
3. Shorter time over the Opal-hot waters off Tampa.

REMEMBER:
We look for little jogs in the forward movement.
A little shift now can mean everything.

IMPORTANT OVERNIGHT UPDATE:
It's not going to be a Cat. 5 !!!
GOOD NEWS: Forward movement increases.
SOURCE: 4 a.m. National Hurricane Center Discussion

WHAT WILL GUSTAV BE LIKE?
Gustav will be like a bullet.
Think Dennis on Steroids.

WHAT DO THE COMPUTER MODELS SAY?
New Orleans. They keep saying New Orleans.
But that's like hitting the Lotto every six hours, day-after-day.

WHAT DOES YOUR GUT SAY?
Gustav will get so close you will smell it.

WHAT DOES A HURRICANE SMELL LIKE?
Dead possum.

OVERHEARD AT THE BARBER SHOP:
"Best thing that can happen to Pensacola, would be a Cat. 5 hurricane."
Really? Is it that bad? Break the pills in half.

GAS PRICES?

Gustav kicks Cuba's fanny!
U.S. should overthrow the commies and start pumping oil.
Teddy Roosevelt would have.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR:

1. If Gustav slows down in forward speed.
Current forward speed: 17 mph.
For a hurricane, that's Star Trek warp speed.

2. People saying, "We've never seen this before...."

NOT MAKING THIS UP:
The planet Venus has twin hurricanes like Gustav and Hanna.
Source: NASA

GOT ANY OTHER CHEERY NEWS?
I got Hanna under control for now.

Go here for complete posts and valuable links:

Your "Link to Life"(tm) Gulf Hurricanes Blog

http://gulfhurricanes.blogspot.com

Tell your friends about this website and its first-tier hurricane forecasts!

Visit the WEBY AM-1330 website at:

http://1330weby.com/
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An explanation for scant information yesterday

I received the following comment Saturday (August 29, 2008) at nearly midnight for a poster who chose to called him- or herself Anonymous:

Your last update is a 5am CDT, nice blog, glad you can be a predictor when it is many days away but as it gets closer your are no where to be found. I guess you evacuated!!!!!
+++++++++

OK, that was deserved. Here is the reason that we were so scant yesterday:

Dear Anonymous:

We apologize for yesterday's scant information.

This is the first real storm that requires coordinating this blog, posts in the PNJ.com forums, posts onto the home page of WEBY AM-1330 ( http://1330weby.com ), creating and recording updates for WEBY AM-1330, coordinating interviews and updates with the National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) Mobile-Pensacola, coordinating interviews and updates with both the Santa Rosa County, and Escambia County (FL) Emergency Operations Centers, and creating and emailing updates to our Your Link to Life(tm) Gulf Hurricanes list.

What is meant by that laundry list is that this is the first time for us working together as a team - including everybody above in their respective roles - on a real hurricane threat. We are learning a lot of lessons about what amount of posts will be filed, emails will be generated, web site updates, and . . . well, I'm sure you get the picture.

On the positive side, your comment was a great morale booster this morning - you can't help but wonder while you are learning to juggle all that whether it is actually making a difference.

On behalf of Mike Bates, owner of WEBY AM-1330, Glenn C. Obert, owner of Webfoot Enterprises ( http://webfootenterprises.com ), the web design and hosting firm working on the WEBY AM-1330 website make-over, Sonya Daniels of the Escambia County (FL) Emergency Operations Center (EOC), Joy Subooka of the Santa Rosa County EOC, Gary Beeler of the NWSFO Mobile-Pensacola, and myself, we thank you for letting us know it does!

Kenneth
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Saturday, August 30, 2008

5 AM CDT (1000Z) National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO Mobile-Pensacola) discussion with their thinking about Gustav - and Hanna

5 AM CDT (1000Z) National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO Mobile-Pensacola) discussion with their thinking about Gustav - and Hanna:


.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WEAKENING THE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULFMEX AND BUILDING THE 850-700 MB RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE GUSTAV ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN-LINE WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...MOST OF THE HURRICANE TRACK MODELS...AND THE NHC FORECAST OF TAKING GUSTAV ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULFMEX AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AND MOVING IT INLAND OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

BASED ON THAT TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS (WHICH EXTEND WELL OUT TO THE EAST FOR 140-160 NAUTICAL MILES) MAY AFFECT OUR SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AND OFFSHORE ZONES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THROUGH LABOR DAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WE ALREADY HAVE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ADVERTISED FROM MOBILE COUNTY EASTWARD TO OKALOOSA COUNTY STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. WE WILL UPDATE THAT COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HERE IN ABOUT AN HOUR...AND RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT OF ANY COASTAL FLOODING WOULD COME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LABOR DAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

FORTUNATELY...WE ARE COMING OFF OUR SPRING TIDE CYCLE HEADING TOWARDS A NEAP CYCLE BY LABOR DAY...MEANING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WOULD NOT RANGE BEYOND A HALF-FOOT. STILL...WITH A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH OF WIND OFF THE GULF BY LABOR DAY...TIDAL PILING INCREASING THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

WHILE WE ARE STARTING TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN A SCENARIO TAKING HURRICANE GUSTAV INLAND OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY...WE STILL CAUTION FOLKS ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK BACK TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE IMPACTS OF GUSTAV ON OUR AREA.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING GUSTAV.

BEYOND TUESDAY GUSTAV SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND WE TAPER POPS BACK SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY...THEN ALL EYES WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS TROPICAL STORM (AND LIKELY BY THEN HURRICANE) HANNA MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE NHC TRACK MODELS AND OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TURNS HANNA TO THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHING CUBA BY THURSDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS...GFS AND ECMWF...TURN HANNA THEN NORTHEAST AND NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS STALLS THEN TAKES HANNA NORTH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...MOVING IT UP THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...WHILE THE ECMWF ROTATES HANNA ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THEN UP THE EASTERN GULF TOWARDS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN THOSE SCENARIOS IS NOT APPRECIABLY HIGH...SO WE WILL JUST HAVE TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER IN TIME BEFORE GIVING ANY SPECIFICS ON HANNA...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AND BE AWARE OF.

MARINE...NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE ON THE WATER THIS LABOR DAY HOLIDAY AS CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING DUE TO GUSTAV.

HURRICANE GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO CHURN NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH POTENTIAL LANDFALL BEING ALONG THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST IN THE ATCHAFALAYA/VERMILLION BAY AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

GRIDDED WIND DATA BRINGS WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL HAVE THIS HEADLINED ON THE MORNING PACKAGE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THERE.COASTAL WATERS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN FEELING THE IMPACT OF INCREASING SWELL EMANATING OUT FROM GUSTAV BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING DRAMATICALLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS GUSTAV NEARS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

LATEST GRIDS HAVE SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 20 FEET IN THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. VERY HAZARDOUS. SEAS WILL STAY HIGH UP THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SETTLING DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AS EFFECTS FROM GUSTAV WAIN.

DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS LONG PERIOD SWELL AND ROUGH SURF IMPACT THE BEACHES. NOTE: THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN THE THREAT CONE. ANY RIGHTWARD DEVIATION TO THE TRACK OF GUSTAV WILL INCREASE THE IMPACTS.

ALL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN. REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GUSTAV. /10
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