As we predicted, Lee is dying

Last night this blog was the first to note that hot, dry air from the TX coast was plowing through the cyclone and would keep it from growing. We asked how long it would take for the NHC to tell the public the same thing.

We got our answer this morning with the 10 AM CDT NHC Discussion:

"LEE IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MUCH...IF ANY...DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF VERY DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE."

Actually, that is an understatement of what is happening to Lee. It's the the SW quadrant - not a semicircle, since a semicircle is half of a circle and therefore it would be the southern semicircle, or western semicircle, the but it's better than the NHC ever did with Irene.

A look at the water vapor imagery shows that the entire "eye" of Lee is exposed. It's over for the TS because it is now making landfall and has no hope of strengthening. It's all downhill from here.

Meanwhile, out over the Gulf, there remains abundant moisture to the east of the center (we use the word center because there is no longer an enclosed "eye".).

This will continue to be pulled north and then northeast as the circulation moves north and then northeast over the next 2 - 3 days. This means that those on the east side of the circulation will continue to get rain for the next few days.

However, it is not likely to be the deluge that was advertised. The Mobile Regional Airport, an official National Weather Service (NWS) reporting station, had only 1.29" inches of rain as of the time of this posting.

In the Pensacola Bay Area, the reporting station at the Emergency Operations Center on North "W" Street had .90" and maximum gust of 22 mph, and at the Judicial Center, there was recorded .73" of rain and a maximum gust of  37 mph. Winds are averaging about 27 mph.

Despite these numbers, the NWS has issued Flood Warnings, and a Tornado Watch until 10 PM tonight for the entire area.

This is no doubt because of the moisture over the Gulf that will be pulled north today and tomorrow.

To sum up, it's going to rain, there will be some wind gusts similar to what you get with thunderstorms, and there is a chance of a low-level tornado.

We'll take another look at the progress of Lee later today.

Now a few other opinions:

Rob Lightbrown of Crown Weather:

Heavy Rainfall Threat: The main story with Lee is the continuation of very heavy rainfall amounts. Total rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches are expected across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama through Sunday night. Extensive flash flooding is likely. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected across the Florida Panhandle through Sunday night. Flash flood watches are in effect across all of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama. If you are in a Flash Flood Watch, please be alert for any flood warnings and be ready to take immediate action to save life and property if flooding occurs.

Storm Surge: The combination of a storm surge due to prolonged onshore winds and astronomical high tides will cause ocean waters to rise to 3 to 5 feet above mean sea level across southern and southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi from today through Sunday. The result will be up to 3 to 5 feet of flood water inundation along the Louisiana coast and up to 2 to 4 feet of flood water inundation along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines.

Minor storm surge flooding is expected outside of the hurricane protection levees along the shores of Lakes Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas and along the immediate Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. If you live in these areas, expect minor flooding of property and low lying roads.

Storm surge flooding is likely along the Louisiana coast with several feet of water possible in non-elevated structures or those buildings that are built on a slab. Roads along the coast, bayous and low lying areas may be closed due to several feet of water on them.. Residents along the Louisiana coast should heed evacuation advice from emergency management officials.

Wind: Tropical storm force winds with gusts to 65 to 70 mph are likely across much of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama from today through Sunday.

Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible from today through Sunday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

Dr. Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground:

The main impact from the storm on the coast thus far has been heavy rains. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, 5.88" inches of rain had fallen from Lee as of 8 am CDT this morning. Top winds were 35 mph, gusting to 55 mph. Though Lee's top winds are rated as being 60 mph, it is difficult to find any land stations that have reported sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph or greater. One station that has is at the tip of the Mississippi River Delta, where Southwest Pass measured sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 7:03 am CDT. Upper-level winds out of the southwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over Lee, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the east side of the storm.

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