Dry slot brings brief sunshine to Alabama

As predicted in this blog a few hours ago, the visible satellite shows that the dry slot from Tropical Storm Lee (TS Lee) continues to work its way up to the AL/FL coast. We have just seen the sun break through briefly in Daphne, AL.

Plan on this slot filling in and clouds, rain, and some gusts to come back. However, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that the amount of rains that NHC/NWS/HPC continues to talk about falling will occur.

There is still a slight tornado threat (see this at the Pensacola News Journal about a touchdown east of Perdido Key at Innerarity Point) and river flooding seems a pretty sure thing.

The bottom line is that unless TS Lee does an incredible job of regenerating itself, the dire overall predictions of the NHC aren't going to happen.

TS Lee composite radar shows huge dry slot

This image shows just how much the rain has stopped - and continued rains over our area will be much less than NHC predicted yesterday.

Images show TS Lee continuing to decay

This water vapor image of TS Lee show how the hot air punch first discussed in this blog about 12-hours before the NHC mentioned it continues to destroy TS Lee. While river flooding is still a real threat, the idea that there will be continued heavy rains anywhere near those feared a couple of days ago continues to lose credibility.

Will the sun break through today - despite NHC dispatches?

Despite the shrill TS Warnings still up from the NHC, satellite and radar imagery show TS Lee is rapidly decaying and is not the threat that it is still being portrayed as in National Hurricane Center (NHC) and National Weather Service (NWS) dispatches.

The 15 - 20 inch rainfall levels are highly improbable now - in fact, a dry slot has developed that may even allow the sun to briefly break through over AL and NW FL.

Here is a visible satellite image that clearly shows the gap in clouds creating the dry slot to the west of the AL/FL area.

All models agree TS Lee is dying

Here are the projected top wind speeds for TS Lee. Please note that there are currently NO land stations reporting sustained winds close to the ones shown here - these occur almost exclusively over the water, not land.

Wind swath map for TS Lee

Here is the latest wind swath map for Lee:

As we predicted, Lee is dying

Last night this blog was the first to note that hot, dry air from the TX coast was plowing through the cyclone and would keep it from growing. We asked how long it would take for the NHC to tell the public the same thing.

We got our answer this morning with the 10 AM CDT NHC Discussion:

"LEE IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MUCH...IF ANY...DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF VERY DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE."

Actually, that is an understatement of what is happening to Lee. It's the the SW quadrant - not a semicircle, since a semicircle is half of a circle and therefore it would be the southern semicircle, or western semicircle, the but it's better than the NHC ever did with Irene.

A look at the water vapor imagery shows that the entire "eye" of Lee is exposed. It's over for the TS because it is now making landfall and has no hope of strengthening. It's all downhill from here.

Meanwhile, out over the Gulf, there remains abundant moisture to the east of the center (we use the word center because there is no longer an enclosed "eye".).

This will continue to be pulled north and then northeast as the circulation moves north and then northeast over the next 2 - 3 days. This means that those on the east side of the circulation will continue to get rain for the next few days.

However, it is not likely to be the deluge that was advertised. The Mobile Regional Airport, an official National Weather Service (NWS) reporting station, had only 1.29" inches of rain as of the time of this posting.

In the Pensacola Bay Area, the reporting station at the Emergency Operations Center on North "W" Street had .90" and maximum gust of 22 mph, and at the Judicial Center, there was recorded .73" of rain and a maximum gust of  37 mph. Winds are averaging about 27 mph.

Despite these numbers, the NWS has issued Flood Warnings, and a Tornado Watch until 10 PM tonight for the entire area.

This is no doubt because of the moisture over the Gulf that will be pulled north today and tomorrow.

To sum up, it's going to rain, there will be some wind gusts similar to what you get with thunderstorms, and there is a chance of a low-level tornado.

We'll take another look at the progress of Lee later today.

Now a few other opinions:

Rob Lightbrown of Crown Weather:

Heavy Rainfall Threat: The main story with Lee is the continuation of very heavy rainfall amounts. Total rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches are expected across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama through Sunday night. Extensive flash flooding is likely. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected across the Florida Panhandle through Sunday night. Flash flood watches are in effect across all of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama. If you are in a Flash Flood Watch, please be alert for any flood warnings and be ready to take immediate action to save life and property if flooding occurs.

Storm Surge: The combination of a storm surge due to prolonged onshore winds and astronomical high tides will cause ocean waters to rise to 3 to 5 feet above mean sea level across southern and southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi from today through Sunday. The result will be up to 3 to 5 feet of flood water inundation along the Louisiana coast and up to 2 to 4 feet of flood water inundation along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines.

Minor storm surge flooding is expected outside of the hurricane protection levees along the shores of Lakes Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas and along the immediate Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. If you live in these areas, expect minor flooding of property and low lying roads.

Storm surge flooding is likely along the Louisiana coast with several feet of water possible in non-elevated structures or those buildings that are built on a slab. Roads along the coast, bayous and low lying areas may be closed due to several feet of water on them.. Residents along the Louisiana coast should heed evacuation advice from emergency management officials.

Wind: Tropical storm force winds with gusts to 65 to 70 mph are likely across much of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama from today through Sunday.

Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible from today through Sunday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

Dr. Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground:

The main impact from the storm on the coast thus far has been heavy rains. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, 5.88" inches of rain had fallen from Lee as of 8 am CDT this morning. Top winds were 35 mph, gusting to 55 mph. Though Lee's top winds are rated as being 60 mph, it is difficult to find any land stations that have reported sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph or greater. One station that has is at the tip of the Mississippi River Delta, where Southwest Pass measured sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 7:03 am CDT. Upper-level winds out of the southwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over Lee, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the east side of the storm.

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TS Lee getting cut in half?

The latest water vapor images show that the dry, hot air off the Texas mainland is cutting TS Lee in half.

At the beginning of the loop you'll see that almost the entire expanse of TS Lee is cold, as marked by the bright magentas and reds. Now look at the western side of the storm and watch the dry air piercing TS Lee like a plow, driving into the heart of the structure, and turning the clouds all blue - which in the loop means they are warming up at an incredible rate.

This is absolutely deadly for a tropical cyclone. The ultra dry, hot air coming off the East Coast of the US when Irene was along the GA/SC line is what sliced off the southern half of the storm and turned the so-called "epic," "historic," and "ferocious," Irene into a pussycat.

Yes, the floods came inland - you always get flooding inland from any tropical cyclone - but remember that the hype was all about the strength of the winds, the coastal flooding, and the general mayhem that Irene would inflict when it made landfall near NY City. It was a weather version of The End Times.

Now what happened to Irene is happening to Lee. There remains a cold core north of where it is being cut in half, but that will prove irrelevant and soon cool down itself because it will be deprived of the wet, moist air it needs to stay alive.

This dry air flow off the TX coast is what took the power out of Hurricane Ike. Now we are seeing the same thing happen again with Lee.

The question I have is how long will it take the NHC to admit its latest weekend people magnet is going to die an ignoble death. The media is terrorized to say the things I'm writing because the vengeance factor at the NHC is vicious. Kiss-up journalists will not sacrifice their cozy relationship with the NHC to report this to the public. And they certainly aren't going to sacrifice their ratings and web hits either.

So think of this as an integrity test for both the NHC and the journalists who cover it.

But the bigger fact this demonstrates is how addicted the NHC is to its big budget computer models, none of which can react as quickly as human sight seeing the reality of what is happening to Lee. That is why it was more than 24-hours after dry air sounded the death knell for Irene that the NHC discussion finally mentioned what everyone else already knew to be true.

How long will it take them to admit the same visual reality about Lee?

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Tropical Storm Lee webcam links

Webcamplaza.net
Upper Texas Coast Webcams (HurricaneCity)
Southeast Louisiana Webcams (HurricaneCity)
Louisiana Webcams
Mississippi Webcams
Alabama Webcams
Florida Panhandle Beach Cams
Bourbon Street, New Orleans Webcam
New Orleans, Louisiana Webcam #1
New Orleans, Louisiana Webcam #2
New Orleans, Louisiana Webcam #3
New Orleans, Louisiana Traffic Cams
Biloxi, Mississippi Webcam
Gulf Shores, Alabama Webcam #1
Gulf Shores, Alabama Webcam From ABC 33/40
Mobile, Alabama Webcam

Tropical Storm Lee media links

Live On Demand Weather TV
The Weather Channel Live Stream
Broadcast Coverage From Internet Partnership Radio
Broadcast Coverage From Hurricane City
Broadcast Coverage From The Weather Radio Broadcast Network
KFDM TV 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KTRE TV 9 Lufkin-Nacogdoches, Texas
KALB NBC/CBS TV Alexandria, LA
KFOL/KJUN Channel 10 Houma/Morgan City, LA
WWL-TV New Orleans, LA
WWL Radio AM870/FM105.3 New Orleans, LA
WDSU Channel 6 New Orleans, LA
WGNO ABC26 New Orleans, LA
WVUE Fox8 New Orleans, LA
NOLA.com New Orleans, LA
WLOX-TV 13 Biloxi, MS
ABC 33/40 Birmingham, Alabama
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog
WKRG News 5 Mobile, AL
NBC15 Mobile, AL
Fox10 TV Mobile, AL
WJHG 7, Panama City, FL
WMBB News 13, Panama City, FL

5-day rainfall map

Tropical Depression 13 predicted to be a real rainmaker

The obvious story about Tropical Depression 13 (TD 13) is the rain. The Pensacola Bay Area is projected to accumulate between 6 to 9 inches of rain over the 5-day Labor Day weekend and into Tuesday of next week.

But that is nothing compared to the 17 inches that New Orleans and SE LA are looking to find falling on the ground. The bulls eye for the rain is 17.1 inches at Grand Isle on the coast.

Development of TD 13 has been hindered by a low pressure system that developed about 24-hours ago to the NW of the storm on the LA coast. This caused moderate to high wind shear on the west side of the circulation, thus keeping it from maturing into a full circle wind pattern.

But water vapor imagery is now showing the low beginning to dissipate, and as it does, the winds will be able to gather strength and round out the circulation pattern.

What this could mean is that if TD 13 (which will become TS Lee) stays out over the water long enough, it could go the distance and become a hurricane before it makes landfall in what the NHC predicts will be about 48-hours from now.

Now come all the "buyer beware" warnings that the NHC doesn't include in its discussions:

First, the models are notorious for poor handling of meandering storms like TD 13. Anyone who was in the Mobile-Pensacola area when Hurricane Danny arrived - and sat - in Mobile Bay for three days will remember how the NHC predicted, day after day, that it would move out immediately. Instead, it just sat there - and finally a frustrated forecaster just admitted, "we don't know what it will do." Too bad it took three days to admit the truth.

Second, this TD has a lot of development it needs to do to become more than a moderate range TS. The center is elongated NE to SW, and that means it has to first become much more circular than it is now to hit hurricane status.

Finally, this isn't going to be about wind speed or surge - it is going to be about flooding. Fortunately - if you can say anything about a TS is fortunate - the areas it is impacting are in a severe to exceptional drought condition, so it's going to take a lot of rain to cause problems. That is why in our area the Mobile NWSFO is being so cautious about flood warnings.

Yes, I know there are coastal flood warnings up, and high surf warnings up, but I'm talking about winds and surge that cause more than the ordinary damage we see all the time from wind events that have nothing to do with tropical storms.

This storm is going to put a real damper on the Labor Day tourism in our area, since anyone who can, should cancel their reservations if the beach is the prime reason for coming. There isn't going to be any sunshine for days.

In fact, they are already flying Red Flag Warnings on Pensacola Beach. The rip currents are going to be killers, and any one with enough sense to avoid standing in the middle of an interstate at rush hour isn't going to go anywhere near the water this weekend.

Which brings up the subject of the judgment of the Pensacola Beach tourism boosters. They have water events planned for the weekend that at this time are still on "Go." Respectfully, they are asking for an incredible lawsuit if anyone gets hurt; 7 - 9 foot waves and killer rip currents should be enough to tell them to take the hit and admit this year didn't work out.

But with the loss from the BP oil spill now getting recovered with a great tourist season so far, it isn't likely the officials will be inclined to put the health and safety of participants in these contests first. After all, these are the same people telling the country the beaches were safe when they were covered in tar balls and matted oil. Greed, combined with financial desperation, will affect otherwise honest people.

The Pensacola Seafood Festival is also going to take a real hit. This is the 34th annual event, and it draws a tremendous crowd to downtown Pensacola.

But this year, there will be rains falling throughout the weekend, and unless you just like walking around in the rain, you are going to skip this year.

So if you take away the hype, what does it look like this very second?

1) TD 13 will very likely become TS Lee tonight or tomorrow.

2) How strong it will become is still a guessing game. But a hurricane is a long shot - but possible. Stay tuned on that one.

3) Wind and surge won't be the story here - it will be the flooding. And the amounts forecast to fall in the time periods that they are forecast to fall in, could overwhelm NOLA's pumping stations, and produce another inundated city. After Katrina, that would give us "All NOLA, all the time" throughout the next week.

4) The amount of rain forecast for our area will be significant, but not overwhelming considering the drought conditions we've suffered this summer.

5) Ignore the hype from the NHC and the media looking for ratings. This is going to be a rain event - and the gusts that they like to use to scare people will be nothing more than what you get throughout the year from local thunderstorms. (I gagged when I read the canned "take all steps now to protect life and property" scare words in the latest local weather statements. Unless this thing makes it to a very strong Cat. 1 hurricane, the winds will be thunderstorm quality at best inland, and those that are stronger along the coast will soon decrease going inland.)

Here are some opinions from other credible sources:

Crown Weather forecaster Rob Lightbrown:

"Tropical Depression #13 Will Meander Around For The Next Few Days & Will Bring Excessively Heavy Rainfall Amounts To The Northern Gulf Coast"

AccuWeather forecaster Alex Sosnowski:

Gulf Storm: The Next Billion-Dollar Disaster?

Weather Underground's Dr. Jeff Masters:

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Real Science's Dr. Steve Goddard:

Will Tropical Storm Lee Winds Be Faster Than “Hurricane” Irene?

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Invest 93L stirs up the Gulf

Will it become a threat to us on the north Gulf coast? Or will it be just another disorganized mess of clouds that dissolves harmlessly back into the atmosphere?

Those are the questions everyone in the Pensacola Bay Area wants to have answered as Invest 93L gathers the attention of local residents and hurricane forecasters.

The disturbance began on the tail end of a quasi-cold front. It is being sheared by southerly winds that are preventing it from ramping up - for the time being. But those winds are forecast to die down, and its chances for becoming a tropical cyclone are inching up.

The latest from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) puts the likelihood of Invest 93L becoming a tropical cyclone at 70% at 8 AM this morning.

According to Crown Weather forecaster Rob Lightbrown, "My thinking is that 93L will meander around just off of the Texas and Louisiana coast for several days and potentially become a hurricane Sunday night or Monday. The European model is downright scary as it forecasts this thing to become a significant hurricane as it makes landfall in southeastern Louisiana next Thursday night. It should be noted that this is the second model run forecast in a row that the European model develops this into a major hurricane. The UKMET model, which has the best track record at the 6 day forecast mark, forecasts 93L to slowly track onshore into southeastern Louisiana on Monday night and Tuesday.

"Given the very weak steering currents forecast next week across the northern Gulf coast, I think 93L/future Lee has the potential to track just about anywhere along the northern Gulf coast and at this point, everyone along the northern Gulf coast should closely monitor the progress of Invest 93L."

Dr. Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground blogs, "By late tonight, wind shear is expected to drop to the moderate range, below 20 knots, and 93L should begin to organize into a tropical depression. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, into Monday. There is some cold, dry air aloft that will retard this process, and I think the earliest we would see a tropical depression is Friday afternoon. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. All of the major models develop 93L near the Louisiana coast, and show a slow and erratic movement due to weak steering currents. Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains beginning this afternoon and intensifying Friday and Saturday. 

"Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31.3°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help 93L strengthen into a tropical storm. Most of the models predict 93L will have some motion to the west by Saturday, which would bring rains to the Texas coast near the Louisiana border. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, making it difficult to predict where the storm might go.

"If 93L stays over water through Tuesday, like the ECMWF model is predicting, the storm would be a threat to intensify into a hurricane. Most of the other models predict 93L will move ashore over Louisiana by Sunday, limiting the storm's development to just tropical storm strength. I think it at least 50% likely 93L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 60 mph winds along the coast of Louisiana by Sunday."

For the Pensacola Bay Area, the National Hydrological Prediction Center expects 7 - 9 inches of rain for the five day period beginning today.

We will continue to update you on Invest 93L. And please tell your friends about this blog; it is the only place I know where you will get a range of opinion, and not just the NHC party line.

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