Your "Link to Life"(tm) Gulf Hurricanes Blog!

Dry slot brings brief sunshine to Alabama

2011-09-04T13:05:00.000-05:00

As predicted in this blog a few hours ago, the visible satellite shows that the dry slot from Tropical Storm Lee (TS Lee) continues to work its way up to the AL/FL coast. We have just seen the sun break through briefly in Daphne, AL.

Plan on this slot filling in and clouds, rain, and some gusts to come back. However, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that the amount of rains that NHC/NWS/HPC continues to talk about falling will occur.

There is still a slight tornado threat (see this at the Pensacola News Journal about a touchdown east of Perdido Key at Innerarity Point) and river flooding seems a pretty sure thing.

The bottom line is that unless TS Lee does an incredible job of regenerating itself, the dire overall predictions of the NHC aren't going to happen.

TS Lee composite radar shows huge dry slot

2011-09-04T09:29:00.000-05:00

This image shows just how much the rain has stopped - and continued rains over our area will be much less than NHC predicted yesterday.

Images show TS Lee continuing to decay

2011-09-04T09:16:00.001-05:00

This water vapor image of TS Lee show how the hot air punch first discussed in this blog about 12-hours before the NHC mentioned it continues to destroy TS Lee. While river flooding is still a real threat, the idea that there will be continued heavy rains anywhere near those feared a couple of days ago continues to lose credibility.

Will the sun break through today - despite NHC dispatches?

2011-09-04T09:07:00.000-05:00

Despite the shrill TS Warnings still up from the NHC, satellite and radar imagery show TS Lee is rapidly decaying and is not the threat that it is still being portrayed as in National Hurricane Center (NHC) and National Weather Service (NWS) dispatches.

The 15 - 20 inch rainfall levels are highly improbable now - in fact, a dry slot has developed that may even allow the sun to briefly break through over AL and NW FL.

Here is a visible satellite image that clearly shows the gap in clouds creating the dry slot to the west of the AL/FL area.

All models agree TS Lee is dying

2011-09-03T11:38:00.005-05:00

Here are the projected top wind speeds for TS Lee. Please note that there are currently NO land stations reporting sustained winds close to the ones shown here - these occur almost exclusively over the water, not land.

Wind swath map for TS Lee

2011-09-03T11:32:00.000-05:00

Here is the latest wind swath map for Lee:

As we predicted, Lee is dying

2011-09-03T11:27:00.000-05:00

Last night this blog was the first to note that hot, dry air from the TX coast was plowing through the cyclone and would keep it from growing. We asked how long it would take for the NHC to tell the public the same thing.

We got our answer this morning with the 10 AM CDT NHC Discussion:

"LEE IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MUCH...IF ANY...DUE TO THEENTRAINMENT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF VERY DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHWESTERNSEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE."

Actually, that is an understatement of what is happening to Lee. It's the the SW quadrant - not a semicircle, since a semicircle is half of a circle and therefore it would be the southern semicircle, or western semicircle, the but it's better than the NHC ever did with Irene.

A look at the water vapor imagery shows that the entire "eye" of Lee is exposed. It's over for the TS because it is now making landfall and has no hope of strengthening. It's all downhill from here.

Meanwhile, out over the Gulf, there remains abundant moisture to the east of the center (we use the word center because there is no longer an enclosed "eye".).

This will continue to be pulled north and then northeast as the circulation moves north and then northeast over the next 2 - 3 days. This means that those on the east side of the circulation will continue to get rain for the next few days.

However, it is not likely to be the deluge that was advertised. The Mobile Regional Airport, an official National Weather Service (NWS) reporting station, had only 1.29" inches of rain as of the time of this posting.

In the Pensacola Bay Area, the reporting station at the Emergency Operations Center on North "W" Street had .90" and maximum gust of 22 mph, and at the Judicial Center, there was recorded .73" of rain and a maximum gust of 37 mph. Winds are averaging about 27 mph.

Despite these numbers, the NWS has issued Flood Warnings, and a Tornado Watch until 10 PM tonight for the entire area.

This is no doubt because of the moisture over the Gulf that will be pulled north today and tomorrow.

To sum up, it's going to rain, there will be some wind gusts similar to what you get with thunderstorms, and there is a chance of a low-level tornado.

We'll take another look at the progress of Lee later today.

Now a few other opinions:

Rob Lightbrown of Crown Weather:

Heavy Rainfall Threat: The main story with Lee is the continuation of very heavy rainfall amounts. Total rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches are expected across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama through Sunday night. Extensive flash flooding is likely. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected across the Florida Panhandle through Sunday night. Flash flood watches are in effect across all of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama. If you are in a Flash Flood Watch, please be alert for any flood warnings and be ready to take immediate action to save life and property if flooding occurs.

Storm Surge: The combination of a storm surge due to prolonged onshore winds and astronomical high tides will cause ocean waters to rise to 3 to 5 feet above mean sea level across southern and southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi from today through Sunday. The result will be up to 3 to 5 feet of flood water inundation along the Louisiana coast and up to 2 to 4 feet of flood water inundation along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines.

Minor storm surge flooding is expected outside of the hurricane protection levees along the shores of Lakes Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas and along the immediate Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. If you live in these areas, expect minor flooding of property and low lying roads.

Storm surge flooding is likely along the Louisiana coast with several feet of water possible in non-elevated structures or those buildings that are built on a slab. Roads along the coast, bayous and low lying areas may be closed due to several feet of water on them.. Residents along the Louisiana coast should heed evacuation advice from emergency management officials.

Wind: Tropical storm force winds with gusts to 65 to 70 mph are likely across much of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama from today through Sunday.

Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible from today through Sunday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

Dr. Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground:

The main impact from the storm on the coast thus far has been heavy rains. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, 5.88" inches of rain had fallen from Lee as of 8 am CDT this morning. Top winds were 35 mph, gusting to 55 mph. Though Lee's top winds are rated as being 60 mph, it is difficult to find any land stations that have reported sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph or greater. One station that has is at the tip of the Mississippi River Delta, where Southwest Pass measured sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 7:03 am CDT. Upper-level winds out of the southwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over Lee, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the east side of the storm.

-30-

TS Lee getting cut in half?

2011-09-02T19:38:00.000-05:00

The latest water vapor images show that the dry, hot air off the Texas mainland is cutting TS Lee in half.

At the beginning of the loop you'll see that almost the entire expanse of TS Lee is cold, as marked by the bright magentas and reds. Now look at the western side of the storm and watch the dry air piercing TS Lee like a plow, driving into the heart of the structure, and turning the clouds all blue - which in the loop means they are warming up at an incredible rate.

This is absolutely deadly for a tropical cyclone. The ultra dry, hot air coming off the East Coast of the US when Irene was along the GA/SC line is what sliced off the southern half of the storm and turned the so-called "epic," "historic," and "ferocious," Irene into a pussycat.

Yes, the floods came inland - you always get flooding inland from any tropical cyclone - but remember that the hype was all about the strength of the winds, the coastal flooding, and the general mayhem that Irene would inflict when it made landfall near NY City. It was a weather version of The End Times.

Now what happened to Irene is happening to Lee. There remains a cold core north of where it is being cut in half, but that will prove irrelevant and soon cool down itself because it will be deprived of the wet, moist air it needs to stay alive.

This dry air flow off the TX coast is what took the power out of Hurricane Ike. Now we are seeing the same thing happen again with Lee.

The question I have is how long will it take the NHC to admit its latest weekend people magnet is going to die an ignoble death. The media is terrorized to say the things I'm writing because the vengeance factor at the NHC is vicious. Kiss-up journalists will not sacrifice their cozy relationship with the NHC to report this to the public. And they certainly aren't going to sacrifice their ratings and web hits either.

So think of this as an integrity test for both the NHC and the journalists who cover it.

But the bigger fact this demonstrates is how addicted the NHC is to its big budget computer models, none of which can react as quickly as human sight seeing the reality of what is happening to Lee. That is why it was more than 24-hours after dry air sounded the death knell for Irene that the NHC discussion finally mentioned what everyone else already knew to be true.

How long will it take them to admit the same visual reality about Lee?

-30-

Tropical Storm Lee webcam links

2011-09-02T13:28:00.000-05:00

Webcamplaza.net
Upper Texas Coast Webcams (HurricaneCity)
Southeast Louisiana Webcams (HurricaneCity)
Louisiana Webcams
Mississippi Webcams
Alabama Webcams
Florida Panhandle Beach Cams
Bourbon Street, New Orleans Webcam
New Orleans, Louisiana Webcam #1
New Orleans, Louisiana Webcam #2
New Orleans, Louisiana Webcam #3
New Orleans, Louisiana Traffic Cams
Biloxi, Mississippi Webcam
Gulf Shores, Alabama Webcam #1
Gulf Shores, Alabama Webcam From ABC 33/40
Mobile, Alabama Webcam

Tropical Storm Lee media links

2011-09-02T13:20:00.002-05:00

Live On Demand Weather TV
The Weather Channel Live Stream
Broadcast Coverage From Internet Partnership Radio
Broadcast Coverage From Hurricane City
Broadcast Coverage From The Weather Radio Broadcast Network
KFDM TV 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KTRE TV 9 Lufkin-Nacogdoches, Texas
KALB NBC/CBS TV Alexandria, LA
KFOL/KJUN Channel 10 Houma/Morgan City, LA
WWL-TV New Orleans, LA
WWL Radio AM870/FM105.3 New Orleans, LA
WDSU Channel 6 New Orleans, LA
WGNO ABC26 New Orleans, LA
WVUE Fox8 New Orleans, LA
NOLA.com New Orleans, LA
WLOX-TV 13 Biloxi, MS
ABC 33/40 Birmingham, Alabama
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog
WKRG News 5 Mobile, AL
NBC15 Mobile, AL
Fox10 TV Mobile, AL
WJHG 7, Panama City, FL
WMBB News 13, Panama City, FL

5-day rainfall map

2011-09-02T13:00:00.002-05:00

Tropical Depression 13 predicted to be a real rainmaker

2011-09-02T12:46:00.001-05:00

The obvious story about Tropical Depression 13 (TD 13) is the rain. The Pensacola Bay Area is projected to accumulate between 6 to 9 inches of rain over the 5-day Labor Day weekend and into Tuesday of next week.

But that is nothing compared to the 17 inches that New Orleans and SE LA are looking to find falling on the ground. The bulls eye for the rain is 17.1 inches at Grand Isle on the coast.

Development of TD 13 has been hindered by a low pressure system that developed about 24-hours ago to the NW of the storm on the LA coast. This caused moderate to high wind shear on the west side of the circulation, thus keeping it from maturing into a full circle wind pattern.

But water vapor imagery is now showing the low beginning to dissipate, and as it does, the winds will be able to gather strength and round out the circulation pattern.

What this could mean is that if TD 13 (which will become TS Lee) stays out over the water long enough, it could go the distance and become a hurricane before it makes landfall in what the NHC predicts will be about 48-hours from now.

Now come all the "buyer beware" warnings that the NHC doesn't include in its discussions:

First, the models are notorious for poor handling of meandering storms like TD 13. Anyone who was in the Mobile-Pensacola area when Hurricane Danny arrived - and sat - in Mobile Bay for three days will remember how the NHC predicted, day after day, that it would move out immediately. Instead, it just sat there - and finally a frustrated forecaster just admitted, "we don't know what it will do." Too bad it took three days to admit the truth.

Second, this TD has a lot of development it needs to do to become more than a moderate range TS. The center is elongated NE to SW, and that means it has to first become much more circular than it is now to hit hurricane status.

Finally, this isn't going to be about wind speed or surge - it is going to be about flooding. Fortunately - if you can say anything about a TS is fortunate - the areas it is impacting are in a severe to exceptional drought condition, so it's going to take a lot of rain to cause problems. That is why in our area the Mobile NWSFO is being so cautious about flood warnings.

Yes, I know there are coastal flood warnings up, and high surf warnings up, but I'm talking about winds and surge that cause more than the ordinary damage we see all the time from wind events that have nothing to do with tropical storms.

This storm is going to put a real damper on the Labor Day tourism in our area, since anyone who can, should cancel their reservations if the beach is the prime reason for coming. There isn't going to be any sunshine for days.

In fact, they are already flying Red Flag Warnings on Pensacola Beach. The rip currents are going to be killers, and any one with enough sense to avoid standing in the middle of an interstate at rush hour isn't going to go anywhere near the water this weekend.

Which brings up the subject of the judgment of the Pensacola Beach tourism boosters. They have water events planned for the weekend that at this time are still on "Go." Respectfully, they are asking for an incredible lawsuit if anyone gets hurt; 7 - 9 foot waves and killer rip currents should be enough to tell them to take the hit and admit this year didn't work out.

But with the loss from the BP oil spill now getting recovered with a great tourist season so far, it isn't likely the officials will be inclined to put the health and safety of participants in these contests first. After all, these are the same people telling the country the beaches were safe when they were covered in tar balls and matted oil. Greed, combined with financial desperation, will affect otherwise honest people.

The Pensacola Seafood Festival is also going to take a real hit. This is the 34th annual event, and it draws a tremendous crowd to downtown Pensacola.

But this year, there will be rains falling throughout the weekend, and unless you just like walking around in the rain, you are going to skip this year.

So if you take away the hype, what does it look like this very second?

1) TD 13 will very likely become TS Lee tonight or tomorrow.

2) How strong it will become is still a guessing game. But a hurricane is a long shot - but possible. Stay tuned on that one.

3) Wind and surge won't be the story here - it will be the flooding. And the amounts forecast to fall in the time periods that they are forecast to fall in, could overwhelm NOLA's pumping stations, and produce another inundated city. After Katrina, that would give us "All NOLA, all the time" throughout the next week.

4) The amount of rain forecast for our area will be significant, but not overwhelming considering the drought conditions we've suffered this summer.

5) Ignore the hype from the NHC and the media looking for ratings. This is going to be a rain event - and the gusts that they like to use to scare people will be nothing more than what you get throughout the year from local thunderstorms. (I gagged when I read the canned "take all steps now to protect life and property" scare words in the latest local weather statements. Unless this thing makes it to a very strong Cat. 1 hurricane, the winds will be thunderstorm quality at best inland, and those that are stronger along the coast will soon decrease going inland.)

Here are some opinions from other credible sources:

Crown Weather forecaster Rob Lightbrown:

"Tropical Depression #13 Will Meander Around For The Next Few Days & Will Bring Excessively Heavy Rainfall Amounts To The Northern Gulf Coast"

AccuWeather forecaster Alex Sosnowski:

Gulf Storm: The Next Billion-Dollar Disaster?

Weather Underground's Dr. Jeff Masters:

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Real Science's Dr. Steve Goddard:

Will Tropical Storm Lee Winds Be Faster Than “Hurricane” Irene?

-30-

Invest 93L stirs up the Gulf

2011-09-01T12:03:00.000-05:00

Will it become a threat to us on the north Gulf coast? Or will it be just another disorganized mess of clouds that dissolves harmlessly back into the atmosphere?

Those are the questions everyone in the Pensacola Bay Area wants to have answered as Invest 93L gathers the attention of local residents and hurricane forecasters.

The disturbance began on the tail end of a quasi-cold front. It is being sheared by southerly winds that are preventing it from ramping up - for the time being. But those winds are forecast to die down, and its chances for becoming a tropical cyclone are inching up.

The latest from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) puts the likelihood of Invest 93L becoming a tropical cyclone at 70% at 8 AM this morning.

According to Crown Weather forecaster Rob Lightbrown, "My thinking is that 93L will meander around just off of the Texas and Louisiana coast for several days and potentially become a hurricane Sunday night or Monday. The European model is downright scary as it forecasts this thing to become a significant hurricane as it makes landfall in southeastern Louisiana next Thursday night. It should be noted that this is the second model run forecast in a row that the European model develops this into a major hurricane. The UKMET model, which has the best track record at the 6 day forecast mark, forecasts 93L to slowly track onshore into southeastern Louisiana on Monday night and Tuesday.

"Given the very weak steering currents forecast next week across the northern Gulf coast, I think 93L/future Lee has the potential to track just about anywhere along the northern Gulf coast and at this point, everyone along the northern Gulf coast should closely monitor the progress of Invest 93L."

Dr. Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground blogs, "By late tonight, wind shear is expected to drop to the moderate range, below 20 knots, and 93L should begin to organize into a tropical depression. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, into Monday. There is some cold, dry air aloft that will retard this process, and I think the earliest we would see a tropical depression is Friday afternoon. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. All of the major models develop 93L near the Louisiana coast, and show a slow and erratic movement due to weak steering currents. Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains beginning this afternoon and intensifying Friday and Saturday.

"Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31.3°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help 93L strengthen into a tropical storm. Most of the models predict 93L will have some motion to the west by Saturday, which would bring rains to the Texas coast near the Louisiana border. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, making it difficult to predict where the storm might go.

"If 93L stays over water through Tuesday, like the ECMWF model is predicting, the storm would be a threat to intensify into a hurricane. Most of the other models predict 93L will move ashore over Louisiana by Sunday, limiting the storm's development to just tropical storm strength. I think it at least 50% likely 93L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 60 mph winds along the coast of Louisiana by Sunday."

For the Pensacola Bay Area, the National Hydrological Prediction Center expects 7 - 9 inches of rain for the five day period beginning today.

We will continue to update you on Invest 93L. And please tell your friends about this blog; it is the only place I know where you will get a range of opinion, and not just the NHC party line.

-30-

Here comes Ida! - Nov. 9, 2009

2009-11-09T12:54:00.011-06:00

I write this with mixed feelings - I recognize Ida is a tropical storm and deserves a certain amount of respect, but at the same time, I feel that by the time it gets to us on the north Gulf coast, there won't be a lot left to it - making all the focus and disruption it is causing somewhat disconcerting. Here's why:

1) The shear is eating Ida's lunch . . . and dinner, and everything else. It's debatable whether there will be much left of Ida by the time she comes ashore.

2) The large variation between the last 2 forecast maps tells me that the disruption in the storm caused by the shear is making tracking the eye very difficult - the NHC folks said as much in the 3 PM Discussion ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/092056.shtml? )

3) The move means Santa Rosa is out from under the gun - if the move stays in place. Any time you see big jumps in the track as we just saw now, that means the models are very unreliable. Just as it moved about 75 - 100 miles west from this last forecast and the one preceding this one, so it can move back again to landfall near Garcon Point. What it means to you: be sure you check tonight for the latest on the storm.

4) As for Escambia County (FL), you are in a slightly worse situation because now you are east of the eye. But with the disruption that the shear winds are putting on Ida, it really is questionable how much the eye reflects the worst of the storm. With the decoupling of the surface eye from the mid and upper level centers of low pressure, it appears we will get the worst when all the current rainbands now washing across us continue their track.

I'll have another update this evening, but in short summary, this is nothing to panic about. The disruption, combined with the shear, mean that Ida will be a big rainmaker, with some winds, but nothing to get distraught about.
-30-

As you can see for yourself from this water vapor image, there is almost nothing left of Ida.

A note to Houston Chronicle readers

2008-09-14T14:29:00.002-05:00

I posted this on your newspaper's site:

Two things saved your area, and 3 monster problems will soon arrive:

1) Those 2 hot, dry days preceding Ike fed that hot, dry air into the western semicircle of Ike. This dry air kept Ike from spinning up into its predicted Cat3/4 forecast. It disrupted the center core formation all way up to its landfall. This kept wind speeds and surge heights down - way, way, down from what it almost became. Chalk that up to "An Act of God."

2) Had Ike made landfall in its final Cat 2 form just 20 miles further southwest, meaning with its northeastern quadrant impacting Galveston, Galveston Bay, and Houston, you would have experienced the National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) Houston-Galveston's prediction of "certain death." The storm surge was about half predicted, and this, combined with its final impact point saved everyone's soul from "certain death."

The only reason anyone is alive on that island is because of the storm's inability to spin up, and its position too far north of the "sweet spot" the NHC feared it would impact.

The lesson you should learn from this is that if this is what a Cat 2 can do, just think how much more destruction you will get when a strong Cat3/4 does hit you where it hurts the most.

Now comes your next incredible challenges: If you think cleaning up is it, you are way too short-sighted. That is nothing compared to what comes next.

1) You have people who are, effectively, unemployed, and too poor to pay for emergency housing. What are they going to do for the next 2 weeks? And what are you going to do when they start complaining that whatever you do isn't enough?

2) You have the New Orleans' "criminal's delight" effect: No electricity means no burglar alarms, no security lighting, no reliable phones - you get the idea. Your police forces will tire and they will be spread too thin to effectively control the criminals - time to put out the armed National Guard troops now, with state police powers. The criminals will be out in force very, very soon.

3) The second New Orleans' effect will be demands that government pay for the losses from those without flood insurance. Even hotter will be the New Orleans' effect from those in public housing and subsidy programs that you rebuild their residences at no charge to them.
-30-

Santa Rosa County Ike Update #2

2008-09-11T14:50:00.002-05:00

Hurricane Ike Update #2
September 11, 2008
2 PM CDT

Hurricane Ike

Weather

We are currently under a coastal flood warning.

Tides are expected to be 3-5 feet. Santa Rosa County is already 2' above normal and high tide tomorrow is somewhere around sunrise. We can expect more of the flooding conditions, possibly worsening at high tide tomorrow morning. Water should start receding tomorrow afternoon.

Deadly rip currents and surf conditions.

Significant wave heights 15 to 20 feet near shore and 20 to 25 feet or more well offshore will continue overnight

A wind advisory is in effect today for the coastal zones for sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts.

Actions by Santa Rosa County

The declaration of local state of emergency was signed at 10 a.m. this morning. A declaration will allow the county to implement protective actions if needed.

Road Closures

Pearson Road south of dirt portion and north of Mary Garzon Way in Avalon

All roads west of Ward Basin and south of Blackwater Drive in East Milton

All of Dolphin Road in Avalon

Ganges Trail south of Hindu in Tiger Point

Andrew Jackson Drive in Floridatown

South Garcon Point Road south of Katie Street in Garcon Point

Gulf Boulevard from South Carolina through much of the National
Seashore on Navarre Beach

All of West Madura Road. The storm water lift station has been turned off until the storm surge subsides.

Sand Bags

Sand and sand bags are available at the following sites/times. Residents should bring shovels and be prepared to fill and load their own bags. There is a 25-bag limit per vehicle.

Public Works Department (bags only)- 6075 Old Bagdad Highway on Friday, 7 a.m. - 3:30 p.m., Corner of Carroll Road and Pine Forest Road (sand only), anytime while supplies last.

Beach Conditions

Beach goers, swimmers and surfers should heed red flag warnings and stay out of the water.

Waves are over topping the eroded dune system on the west end of Gulf Boulevard. Erosion continues along the entire dune system with severe erosion on the west end.

Mariners should heed small-craft warnings and remain in port.

City of Gulf Breeze

As a result of storm surge from Hurricane Ike in combination with peak monthly and daily tidal patterns, Gulf Breeze is experiencing some storm surge related flooding along low-lying waterfront properties. Specifically, these include sections of Soundview Trail, Deer Point Drive as well as Shoreline Park South.

Affected property owners should expect re-occurrence of flooding tides over the next day or so until the influence of hurricane Ike dissipates.

Shoreline Park South Boat Ramp is closed as the entire parking lot is under water.

City of Milton

Sections of the Riverwalk boardwalk are flooded.
-30-

How bad will it be? NWSFO Houston-Galveston issues warning of "certain death."

2008-09-11T13:37:00.003-05:00

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT...
CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX1139 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA AND GALVESTON BAYS...15 TO 20 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND...12 TO 16 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES... WILL BE INUNDATED DURING HIGH TIDE.

PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH.

MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED.

WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY.

NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER.

ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF.

WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

...WINDS...

VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED.

HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJORDAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF.

MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLYTO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS.

OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.

NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED.

UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.

PERSONS SHOULD PREPARE THEIR PROPERTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS. SECURE OR REMOVE ANY LOOSE ITEMS SURROUNDING YOUR PROPERTY WHICH COULD BE BLOWN AROUND BY TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. TRIM TREES NEAR YOUR PROPERTY.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

MOST MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE. SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED.

HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TOSHINGLES...SIDING...AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT.UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOMEAIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY.

DOZENS OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS.

MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2 PM CDT.
-30-

NWSFO Mobile-Pensacola issues Wind Advisory

2008-09-11T13:01:00.003-05:00

Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...HURRICANE IKE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES WEST NORTHWEST AND SENDS STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AS HURRICANE IKE CHURNS WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF...THE OUTER FRINGES OF ITS WIND FIELD WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT...DIMINISHING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE... FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...
BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...
PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...
NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO

1217 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH. IN ANY SQUALLS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE RAPIDLY WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH...
MAINLY IN SQUALLS THAT DEVELOP...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ISLANDS AND THE BEACHES.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION ON ANY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES THAT RUN IN A NORTH AND SOUTH DIRECTION.
-30-

Escambia County (FL) EOC Update #2

2008-09-11T12:46:00.000-05:00

Date: September 11, 2008
Time: 12:15 p.m.

Escambia County- Possible Coastal Flooding due to Hurricane Ike

Escambia County Emergency Management Officials and the Santa Rosa Island Authority are issuing the following safety information due to hazardous conditions along our beaches and waterways.

Ø Extremely rough surf conditions exist at the beaches.
Ø Red flag conditions at both beaches prohibit swimming and surfing in the gulf.
Ø People are reminded to stay out of the water and away from the shoreline.
Ø Tides are expected to be 3 to 5 feet above normal.
Ø The beaches could experience coastal flooding throughout the day.
Ø Low lying areas along the bays and bayous could also experience flooding throughout the day.

Ø Current Flooded Streets:

o Pensacola Beach
Ø 900 Block of Aero
Ø Corto Drive
Ø Largo Drive
Ø 220 Panferio Drive
Ø 1300/1312 Rio Vista
Ø Entrada 1
Ø Entrada 2
Ø Bahia Paz Complex
Ø Walkover 27
Ø 900 - 1100 Ariola Drive
Ø Fort Pickens Gate West
Ø Bridge to EPA Lab is nearly underwater

o Perdido Key
Ø 1400 Block River Road
Ø Gongora Drive
Ø Siguenza Drive

o Pensacola
Ø 17th Avenue at railroad crossing

Escambia County (FL) EOC statement

2008-09-11T11:33:00.001-05:00

Date: September 11, 2008
Time: 9:00 a.m.

Escambia County- Possible Coastal Flooding due to Hurricane Ike

Escambia County Emergency Management Officials and the Santa Rosa Island Authority are issuing the following safety information due to hazardous conditions along our beaches and waterways.

Extremely rough surf conditions exist at the beaches. Red flag conditions at both beaches prohibit swimming and surfing in the gulf. People are reminded to stay out of the water and away from the shoreline.

Tides are expected to be 3 to 5 feet above normal.

The beaches could experience coastal flooding throughout the day.

Low lying areas along the bays and bayous could also experience flooding throughout the day.

Flooding Safety Information

When driving, always be aware that the road bed under flood waters may be severely damaged.

NEVER drive through flooded roadways. Remember that it takes only two feet of water to carry away a vehicle, including pickups and SUVs.

When walking, do not attempt to cross flowing streams. Remember that it takes only six inches of rushing water to knock an adult off his feet.

If your vehicle stalls, get out immediately and go to higher ground.

Be extra cautious at night, when it is harder to see possible flood dangers.

These four words could save your life: TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
-30-

Santa Rosa County declares State of Emergency

2008-09-11T11:24:00.003-05:00

From the Santa Rosa County EOC:

Hurricane Ike Update #1
September 11, 2008
Hurricane Ike

Weather

We are currently under a coastal flood warning.

Deadly rip currents and surf conditions can be expected.

Significant wave heights 15 to 20 feet near shore and 20 to 25 feet or more well offshore will continue overnight

A wind advisory is in effect today for the coastal zones for sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts.

Road Closures

Andrew Jackson Drive in Floridatown

South Garcon Point Road south of Katie Street in Garcon Point

Gulf Boulevard from South Carolina through much of the National
Seashore on Navarre Beach

Sections of Madura Road in Tiger Point and the adjacent cul-de-sacs.

The stormwater lift station has been turned off until the storm surge subsides.

Sand Bags

Sand and sand bags are available at the following sites/times. Residents should bring shovels and be prepared to fill and load their own bags. There is a 25-bag limit per vehicle.

Public Works Department (bags only)- 6075 Old Bagdad Highway on Friday, 7 a.m. - 3:30 p.m., Corner of Carroll Road and Pine Forest Road (sand only), anytime while supplies last.

Beach Conditions

Beachgoers, swimmers and surfers should heed red flag warnings and stay out of the water.

Waves are overtopping the eroded dune system on the west end of Gulf Boulevard. Erosion continues along the entire dune system with severe erosion on the west end.

Mariners should heed small-craft warnings and remain in port.

City of Gulf Breeze

A few houses on pilings along Deer Point Drive and Soundview Trail have water under them.

Soundview Trail has water over the road in two places and cones and barrels are being placed to slow traffic.

Shoreline Park South Boat Ramp is closed as the entire parking lot is under water.

City of Milton

Sections of the Riverwalk boardwalk are flooded.
-30-

Thursday, August 11, 2008 NWSFO Warnings

2008-09-11T10:42:00.002-05:00

Here is the latest from the National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) Mobile-Pensacola:

Coastal Flood Warning COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL1018 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...HURRICANE IKE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BRINGING COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SEAS...AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS TO THE GULF COAST...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM CDT SATURDAY...
...A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND TO DESTIN...
HURRICANE IKE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF ON FRIDAY. IKE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LAND FALL OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...SOUTH OF GALVESTON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS...HIGH SEAS AND DANGEROUS SURF FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BEACHES FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND TO DESTIN. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...BECOMINGSOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS IKE MOVES MORE TO THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE SWELLS AND STRONG WINDS HAS ALREADY CAUSED COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ALONG AREA BEACH FRONTS WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF WATER COVERED ROADS AND INSTANCES OF MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-112330-/O.EXT.KMOB.CF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080913T1700Z//O.EXT.KMOB.SU.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080913T0000Z/LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-1018 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT SATURDAY......HIGH SURF WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY...
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT SATURDAY. THE HIGH SURF WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY.
LARGE SWELLS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS HAS RESULTED IN RISING WATER A FEW FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...PRODUCING PERIODS OF COASTAL FLOODING ALL ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE EFFECT OF THIS FLOODING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN MOBILE COUNTY.
MOBILE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND IS FLOODED AND THE NORTH ENTRANCE TO THE DAUPHIN ISLAND BRIDGE HAD WATER SPLASHING ON TO THE ROADWAY. HIGHWAY 90 ON THE MOBILE BAY CAUSEWAY IS ALSO EXPERIENCING FLOODING.
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF MOBILE BAY IN LOWER LYING AREAS AND RESIDENTIAL YARDS ALONG INLAND WATERWAYS SUCH AS DOG RIVER AND BAYOU SARA.
BALDWIN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS THAT WEST BEACH...FORTMORGAN...FLASH ISLAND AND COUNTY ROAD 1 HAD WATER COVERING THE ROADWAY. IN THESE AREAS WATER WAS COMING UNDER HOUSING STRUCTURES ON STILTS.TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL ALLOW THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE FRIDAY MORNING.RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED ROADS.
ESCAMBIA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS SOME WATER ON VIA DE LUNA STREET BETWEEN PENSACOLA BEACH AND NAVARRE. IN SANTA ROSA COUNTY ALONG ESCAMBIA BAY...WATER WAS APPROACHING SOME RESIDENTIAL AREAS. GULF BREEZE SHORELINE PARK HAD WATER. IN OKALOOSACOUNTY...HIGHWAY 98 ON OKALOOSA ISLAND HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO WATERON ROAD AND LUNUS BEACH DRIVE WAS CLOSED IN DESTIN.
LARGE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK ON THE SAND BARS FROM JUST OFFSHORE UP TO A MILE OFFSHORE. WAVES 10 TO 15 FEET WILL BREAK ON THE SAND BARS WITH SMALLER BUT STILL POWERFUL BREAKERS ON THE BEACHES. THIS ENHANCES THE RISK OF MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO NOT DRIVE ACROSS WATER COVERED ROADS. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN.
A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS...BATTERING WAVES WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS...AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS.
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
High Surf Warning COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL1018 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...HURRICANE IKE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BRINGING COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SEAS...AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS TO THE GULF COAST...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM CDT SATURDAY...
...A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND TO DESTIN...
HURRICANE IKE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF ON FRIDAY. IKE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LAND FALL OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...SOUTH OF GALVESTON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS...HIGH SEAS AND DANGEROUS SURF FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BEACHES FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND TO DESTIN. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...BECOMINGSOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS IKE MOVES MORE TO THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE SWELLS AND STRONG WINDS HAS ALREADY CAUSED COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ALONG AREA BEACH FRONTS WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF WATER COVERED ROADS AND INSTANCES OF MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-112330-/O.EXT.KMOB.CF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080913T1700Z//O.EXT.KMOB.SU.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080913T0000Z/LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-1018 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT SATURDAY......HIGH SURF WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY...
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT SATURDAY. THE HIGH SURF WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY.
LARGE SWELLS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS HAS RESULTED IN RISING WATER A FEW FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...PRODUCING PERIODS OF COASTAL FLOODING ALL ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE EFFECT OF THIS FLOODING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN MOBILE COUNTY.
MOBILE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND IS FLOODED AND THE NORTH ENTRANCE TO THE DAUPHIN ISLAND BRIDGE HAD WATER SPLASHING ON TO THE ROADWAY. HIGHWAY 90 ON THE MOBILE BAY CAUSEWAY IS ALSO EXPERIENCING FLOODING.
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF MOBILE BAY IN LOWER LYING AREAS AND RESIDENTIAL YARDS ALONG INLAND WATERWAYS SUCH AS DOG RIVER AND BAYOU SARA.
BALDWIN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS THAT WEST BEACH...FORTMORGAN...FLASH ISLAND AND COUNTY ROAD 1 HAD WATER COVERING THE ROADWAY. IN THESE AREAS WATER WAS COMING UNDER HOUSING STRUCTURES ON STILTS.TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL ALLOW THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE FRIDAY MORNING.RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED ROADS.
ESCAMBIA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS SOME WATER ON VIA DE LUNA STREET BETWEEN PENSACOLA BEACH AND NAVARRE. IN SANTA ROSA COUNTY ALONG ESCAMBIA BAY...WATER WAS APPROACHING SOME RESIDENTIAL AREAS. GULF BREEZE SHORELINE PARK HAD WATER. IN OKALOOSACOUNTY...HIGHWAY 98 ON OKALOOSA ISLAND HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO WATERON ROAD AND LUNUS BEACH DRIVE WAS CLOSED IN DESTIN.
LARGE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK ON THE SAND BARS FROM JUST OFFSHORE UP TO A MILE OFFSHORE. WAVES 10 TO 15 FEET WILL BREAK ON THE SAND BARS WITH SMALLER BUT STILL POWERFUL BREAKERS ON THE BEACHES. THIS ENHANCES THE RISK OF MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO NOT DRIVE ACROSS WATER COVERED ROADS. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN.
A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS...BATTERING WAVES WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS...AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS.
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL543 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121100-CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-543 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTMISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HURRICANE IKE MOVES WEST NORTHWEST OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 15 TO 20 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 20 TO 25 FEET OR MORE WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI BORDER WEST TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATER TODAY.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES FROM MOBILE COUNTY TO OKALOOSA COUNTY FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
DUE TO THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND LARGE LONG PERIODSWELLS...TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM THIS MORNING. COASTAL FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS MORNING FROM SEVERAL LOCATIONS FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND TO NEAR NAVARRE FLORIDA. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MOBILE COUNTY TO OKALOOSA COUNTY. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ON AREA BEACHES TODAY. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HURRICANE IKE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS HURRICANE IKE MOVES FURTHER WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCALAREA...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER ON FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL ZONES. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FRIDAY AS TIDE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON FRIDAY MORNING...LIKELY SENDING WATER ONTO THE MORE FLOOD PRONE ROADWAYS ALONG THE BEACHES AGAIN AND ACROSS THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ONFRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON AREA BEACHES AGAIN FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER REPORTS OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE APPRECIATED
$$

How bad might Ike be? Read this description of wind damage from NWSFO Houston

2008-09-10T22:32:00.002-05:00

It reads like an end-of-the-world novel. What is getting ready to hit TX is truly awesome in its power, and terrifying in its might . . . if the local statement below issued at 7 PM CDT by the NWSFO Houston-Galveston comes fully true. Read it, slowly, to allow its horrible images - its destructive reality - form in your mind. There but for the Grace of God go we . . .

...WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 3 AM FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND BY 2 PM ON FRIDAY WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.

INLAND...WINDS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE NEARING 25 TO 40 MPH SUSTAINED MAKING ELEVATED ROADWAYS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS.

SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 8 PM FRIDAY NEAR THE EYEWALL WHICH IS FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE INTO MATAGORDA COUNTY.

IN CLOSE TO THE EYE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND ALL MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION BEING DESTROYED OR SEVERELY DAMAGED. MODERATE TO MAJOR DAMAGE OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCLUDE FAILURE OF UP TO ONE HALF OF ALL GABLED ROOFS.

IN ADDITION....UP TO ONE QUARTER OF EXTERIOR WALLS WILL FAIL. ALUMINUM AND LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL ROOFS WILL BE TORN OFF BUILDINGS AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS. PARTIAL ROOF AND EXTERIOR WALL FAILURES ARE LIKELY AT LOW RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION.

MOST WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT...WITH OTHER MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE POSSIBLE DUE TO SWAYING.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL MAJOR DAMAGE...AS WELL AS INJURIES AND A FEW FATALITIES.

NEAR TOTAL POWER LOSS IS EXPECTED. UP TO ONE HALF OF ALL POWER POLES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN...AND HUNDREDS OF TRANSFORMERS WILL POP.

THE AVAILABILITY OF POTABLE WATER WILL BE DIMINISHED AS FILTRATION SYSTEMS BEGIN TO FAIL. NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THOUSANDS OF TREES BEING SEVERELY DAMAGED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF ALL HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL SNAP OR BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED GROUND.UP TO ONE HALF OF HEALTHY LARGE TREES WILL SNAP OR BE UPROOTED.

MOST NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE WIPED OUT.

LIVESTOCK LEFT OUTSIDE WILL BE INJURED...SOME CRITICALLY. A FEW LIVESTOCK DEATHS ARE LIKELY.
-30-

Crown Weather discussion outlines a possible Florida Panhandle landfall

2008-09-06T16:02:00.004-05:00

Here's the discussion from Crown Weather:

Hurricane Ike: Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Ike early this morning continue to find a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane. They also indicated that Ike has a closed 24 mile diameter eye and a central pressure of 982 millibars. Although northerly shear continues to affect the hurricane, it does not appear to be affecting the inner core convection as much as it was previously.

All of the intensity guidance continue to indicate that the shear will decrease by late tonight or tomorrow morning, which should allow for some strengthening before Ike moves close to the north coast of Cuba or even over the Florida Straits on Monday through Tuesday. After Monday night and Tuesday, Ike is forecast to track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico where conditions appear rather conducive for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico and Ike has the potential to be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday and Thursday.

Of course, any slight deviation north or south of its current forecast track will either allow for more strengthening over water or a longer period of weakening over land. So, at this point, it appears Ike will strengthen to potentially Category 4 strength before tracking near the north coast of Cuba. The amount of weakening that Ike undergoes highly depends on how much interaction the hurricane has with the island. If Ike tracks along the north coast of Cuba, then it would be knocked down to Category 2 strength. However, if Ike tracks through the Florida Straits, then little or no weakening would occur and the Florida Keys would be exposed to a very powerful hurricane.

It should be noted that I am looking more towards a track that takes the hurricane over the Florida Straits just north of the northern coast of Cuba. Should this occur, Ike will likely not weaken much as it tracks through the Florida Straits and this puts the Florida Keys at a significant risk from a major hurricane. Please read more about my thinking on the forecast track further on down this discussion.

Ike is tracking west-southwest at a forward speed of 16 mph within the deep layer flow of a strong ridge of high pressure digging southwestward over the Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

The global models are forecasting that the ridge of high pressure will shift to a more zonal pattern during the next 24 to 36 hours which will cause Ike to move in a more westward fashion. Afterward, model guidance indicates that the southwest extension of the ridge of high pressure over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida will erode just enough to induce a gradual turn toward the northwest by Tuesday and Wednesday.

This is a lot of uncertainty in the models as to how close Ike will approach the northern coast of Cuba. In fact, the two hurricane models, the GFDL and HWRF models, actually bring the hurricane over the island in 36 hours. Without question, the particular track that the GFDL and HWRF models are suggesting could have a significant impact on Ike's intensity.

There are two scenarios that may occur with Ike, and each are equally likely to happen:

Scenario 1 is that Ike turns to the west and misses the north coast of Cuba and tracks either through the Florida Straits or the lower Florida Keys as a upper end Category 3 to a Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday. After that, the extension of the ridge would erode allowing for a northwestward and then northerly track to potentially impact the west coast of Florida or the Florida Panhandle late next week.

Scenario 2 is that Ike tracks further south like the model guidance is trending towards and Ike tracks across northern Cuba or perhaps even over the entire length of the island. This track would knock the hurricane down from Category 3 or 4 strength to at most a Category 1 hurricane. After that, Ike would turn more northwestward and track through the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen slowly as its inner core could be severely disrupted by the island of Cuba.

With Scenario 2, a landfall somewhere between Louisiana and the Texas coast would be more possible late next week as a Category 2 or perhaps a Category 3 hurricane.

I am going to go out on a limb here, and state that I am personally leaning much more towards Scenario 1. The key to the future track of Ike is what kind of weakness is going to be present when the hurricane is near Cuba in a couple of days and also how far south the ridge of high pressure pushes Ike west-southwest. 2 days ago, the models had way overdone the trough of low pressure entering the center of the United States, thus the outputs were heavily favoring South Florida or a recurve out to sea.

Then, yesterday, many of the models caught on, but have overdone the lack of a weakness of high pressure, thus erroneously forecasting a elongated ridge axis oriented east to west to the north of Ike, inducing a track right across Cuba or even south of the island.

My personal feeling is that a track north of Cuba through the Florida Straits or perhaps even right along the northern coast of Cuba is the most likely scenario. Therefore, it appears that we may either have a very strong hurricane tracking through the Florida Straits on Tuesday that does not weaken at all or a very strong hurricane that tracks right along the northern coast of Cuba that weakens somewhat due to land interacting. Either case, the latest indications are that tropical storm force winds will begin affecting the Florida Keys as early as Monday night.

It should be noted that it is way, way too early to be sure where on the Gulf Coast Ike could make landfall. That landfall possibility highly depends on the track of Ike over the next 2 to 3 days. If Ike tracks through the Florida Straits or the Florida Keys, like I am currently thinking, then a landfall near the Florida Panhandle or the west coast of Florida would be more likely.

However, if Ike tracks across Cuba, then a landfall further west in the Gulf of Mexico, from Louisiana to the Texas coast would be more likely.

The Florida Keys are highly vulnerable to hurricanes, and are at a great risk from Ike. There is only one road connecting the Keys to the mainland and it requires 48 to 72 hours to evacuate the Florida Keys.

There will be a mandatory evacuation for all visitors starting this morning. The Monroe County Office of Emergency Management says visitors must leave starting at 9 a.m. this morning. A phased evacuation for residents will start Sunday morning. Key West and the lower Keys will be evacuated first. The middle and northern Keys will follow later in the day.

All interests in the Bahamas, in south Florida and in the Florida Keys should continue to pay very close attention to the progress of Ike and start thinking about what actions you will take when Hurricane Watches and Warnings are posted for your location. For the latest information about Ike, including watches and warnings, please visit our Hurricane Ike Page.

The next scheduled tropical weather discussion will be issued by 9 am EDT Sunday morning. I may try to issue an update regarding the latest information about Hurricane Ike sometime this evening.
-30-

"I Like Ike?" Well, not this time.

2008-09-06T09:30:00.003-05:00

We are in one of those situations when the 5-day forecast talks about Ike in the Gulf, and at the same time tells you that 5-day forecasts are subject to big errors - you get the anxiety, and then you're told not to be anxious; it's a bit of an approach-avoidance dilemma.

The headlines scream, "All Eyes On Ike." OK, that qualifies are a magnet to pull you into the anxiety.

It's followed by, "If Ike turns into the Gulf through the Florida straits." If it doesn't thread the needle, everything concerning The Heart of Hurricane Alley changes. (Hmmm, think the Chamber of Commerce will make that our new local slogan as part of it's "feel good" about the economy campaign: "Pensacola, the Heart of Hurricane Alley!")

As things stand this morning, the models continue to nudge further west with each run. That's a good thing for us; for example, the drift to the south and southwest that Gustav did for 3 days prior to getting picked up and driven northwest by the steering currents meant it went further west than it would have gone without that westward drift.

Another note to keep in mind about the models: the faster the tropical cyclone's movement, the more accurate they become.

The reason is how the models work. Most of the models you see are used year-round as global forecasting tools; a hurricane, while big and fearsome to us, is a very small percentage of the total global weather pattern.

Fronts, and continental sized pressure systems move very quickly; it is nothing for us to see fronts move through our area at 35 - 45 mph. When a hurricane or other tropical cyclone slows down below 10 mph, the models have trouble with such a slow speed. They are built to give movement to everything, and having something stall within their global view causes all sorts of problems with them.

That is why, once a storm gets up to 10 or more mph in speed, the models become more accurate. Under that speed, they become increasingly inaccurate as the storm's speed drops below 10 mph. At a speed of 4 mph or less, they are almost useless.

But the problem comes from the need to forecast something - movement even when real-time and near real-time data clearly shows the models are being flummoxed by the storm's stagnant behavior. This is the aspect for watching how a storm will move that you need to keep in mind: the slower the speed of the system, the less reliable the model's forecasting ability. The benchmarks are over 10 mph and up gives increasingly accurate forecasts; dropping down from 10 mph give increasingly inaccurate forecasts. At 4 mph and less, they are highly inaccurate.

For those who want to see this for yourself, go back to Fay when it was south of Cuba, or Gustav when it was just off the Haitian coast. For a local example see Danny in 1997 sit in Mobile Bay for 3 days, and read the increasing frustration from the NHC after 24 "never came true" forecasts.

Here is what we suggest you consider now with Ike:

1) It's all in the turn. When it takes place, and how far westward is its track when it begins to turn to the north/northwest will determine our future experience with Ike.

2) You've heard of steering currents. They are high pressure systems that hurricanes travel along the edge of in their journey. How the high pressure system north of Ike behaves will determine where Ike goes.

3) This far out in time, anywhere from south Florida to Texas could become Ike's target.

4) It will be Monday or Tuesday before we can reasonably forecast Ike's target.

5) The faster Ike travels, the more accurate the storm models.

6) The Weather Channel, and your local forecaster are parrots for the NHC forecast. Ask your lawyer why - it's all about liability. So long as they report, and do not forecast, they are covered. In other words, they are no more accurate than the NHC because they are an extension of the NHC in that sense.

7) The information I broadcast on WEBY AM-1330 is prepared in consultation with the local managers of the Emergency Operations Centers for Escambia County (FL) and Santa Rosa County, and the National Weather Service Forecast Office Mobile-Pensacola. In the case of Gustav, I read back to them what I was going to put out on the air, and got their agreement I was "on message" for what they wanted the public to get.

With Gustav, I kept telling people not to be complacent about the hurricane because it could make a 20 - 50 mile adjustment to the east and those winds that covered south Baldwin and Mobile counties would then cover us.

It is the message the parties above wanted you to hear so that you wouldn't just write the storm off without staying alert to those possibilities. I'd like to remind all of you that the cut-off point for the Hurricane Warning was the county line between Escambia County (FL) and Baldwin County. We were on the edge of the hurricane-possible conditions.

We will always have people who call the game after it's played. Gustav went on to LA, and it stayed pretty much on target with the models. They come back mocking the message of the NWSFO and the EOC's that I carried to you.

Please don't let these immature personalities affect your thinking. Their need for attention through personal attacks comes from troubles deep inside their souls. You can be sure that they are not mocking because of their interest in your safety; they are troubled with many problems and if you read all that that they write - while hiding behind a screen name so they aren't publicly accountable for their public remarks - you'll quickly see these are people who are angry about everything in life.

Yes, they are troubled souls. Don't let their troubles cloud your safety.

We'll have more up this afternoon after the 4 PM CDT discussion from the NHC.
-30-

Gustav officially begins

2008-08-31T15:42:00.001-05:00

IMPORTANT NOTE: We are going to be posting a lot of information from the Santa Rosa County, and Escambia County (FL) EOCs on the Your Link to Life(tm) Gulf Hurricanes Blog. It then posts on the WEBY AM-1330 homepage. You’ll find the web addresses at the bottom of this email. Check both sites – MAKE SURE YOU GET ALL THE INFORMATION TO PROTECT YOUSELF, YOUR FAMILY, AND YOUR PROPERTY!

THUNDER! Mark your sheet on Gustav – the first thunder in the Pensacola Bay Area occurred at 3:10 PM CDT (2010Z). It’s officially beginning!

From the Your Link to Life(tm) Gulf Hurricanes Blog source, “Deep Background.”

TROPICAL UPDATE
Sunday, Aug. 31, 2008
----------------------------------------------
Time stamp: 5:07 a.m. Central Time
BIG GULP SIZE: 32 oz. Coke Cola

GUSTAV: HIGH NOON

GUSTAV: "Staff of God"
You can get "whacked" by a walking staff,
or a walking staff can help you to the Promised Land.

NEW ORLEANS:
Somebody's home is not going to be there Tuesday.

HOW ABOUT THIS?
Pensacola Bay Area south of I-10 is forecast to have gusts up to 55 mph on Monday. Those will almost only occur on the beaches.
If Gustav shifts to the east, the wind field shifts with it. Right now, Baldwin County. Which is under a Hurricane Warning – we have a Tropical Storm Warning – to have gusts up to 65 mph on the beaches and inland covering the bottom third of the county. If Gustav shifts its landfall 30 miles east, then those winds will shift with Gustav and be over us.

That's tropical weather. Always sleep lightly when it is coming ashore in the pre-dawn hours. Check the location and movement of the storm tonight about 1 AM.

WHY? WHAT DO WE HAVE GOING FOR US?
1. Gustav's forward speed.
2. Faster it goes, the faster it punches through the eastern side of a blocking pressure system.
3. Shorter time over the Opal-hot waters off Tampa.

REMEMBER:
We look for little jogs in the forward movement.
A little shift now can mean everything.

IMPORTANT OVERNIGHT UPDATE:
It's not going to be a Cat. 5 !!!
GOOD NEWS: Forward movement increases.
SOURCE: 4 a.m. National Hurricane Center Discussion

WHAT WILL GUSTAV BE LIKE?
Gustav will be like a bullet.
Think Dennis on Steroids.

WHAT DO THE COMPUTER MODELS SAY?
New Orleans. They keep saying New Orleans.
But that's like hitting the Lotto every six hours, day-after-day.

WHAT DOES YOUR GUT SAY?
Gustav will get so close you will smell it.

WHAT DOES A HURRICANE SMELL LIKE?
Dead possum.

OVERHEARD AT THE BARBER SHOP:
"Best thing that can happen to Pensacola, would be a Cat. 5 hurricane."
Really? Is it that bad? Break the pills in half.

GAS PRICES?

Gustav kicks Cuba's fanny!
U.S. should overthrow the commies and start pumping oil.
Teddy Roosevelt would have.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR:

1. If Gustav slows down in forward speed.
Current forward speed: 17 mph.
For a hurricane, that's Star Trek warp speed.

2. People saying, "We've never seen this before...."

NOT MAKING THIS UP:
The planet Venus has twin hurricanes like Gustav and Hanna.
Source: NASA

GOT ANY OTHER CHEERY NEWS?
I got Hanna under control for now.

Go here for complete posts and valuable links:

Your "Link to Life"(tm) Gulf Hurricanes Blog

http://gulfhurricanes.blogspot.com

Tell your friends about this website and its first-tier hurricane forecasts!

Visit the WEBY AM-1330 website at:

http://1330weby.com/
-30-

An explanation for scant information yesterday

2008-08-31T13:26:00.002-05:00

I received the following comment Saturday (August 29, 2008) at nearly midnight for a poster who chose to called him- or herself Anonymous:

Your last update is a 5am CDT, nice blog, glad you can be a predictor when it is many days away but as it gets closer your are no where to be found. I guess you evacuated!!!!!
+++++++++

OK, that was deserved. Here is the reason that we were so scant yesterday:

Dear Anonymous:

We apologize for yesterday's scant information.

This is the first real storm that requires coordinating this blog, posts in the PNJ.com forums, posts onto the home page of WEBY AM-1330 ( http://1330weby.com ), creating and recording updates for WEBY AM-1330, coordinating interviews and updates with the National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) Mobile-Pensacola, coordinating interviews and updates with both the Santa Rosa County, and Escambia County (FL) Emergency Operations Centers, and creating and emailing updates to our Your Link to Life(tm) Gulf Hurricanes list.

What is meant by that laundry list is that this is the first time for us working together as a team - including everybody above in their respective roles - on a real hurricane threat. We are learning a lot of lessons about what amount of posts will be filed, emails will be generated, web site updates, and . . . well, I'm sure you get the picture.

On the positive side, your comment was a great morale booster this morning - you can't help but wonder while you are learning to juggle all that whether it is actually making a difference.

On behalf of Mike Bates, owner of WEBY AM-1330, Glenn C. Obert, owner of Webfoot Enterprises ( http://webfootenterprises.com ), the web design and hosting firm working on the WEBY AM-1330 website make-over, Sonya Daniels of the Escambia County (FL) Emergency Operations Center (EOC), Joy Subooka of the Santa Rosa County EOC, Gary Beeler of the NWSFO Mobile-Pensacola, and myself, we thank you for letting us know it does!

Kenneth
-30-

5 AM CDT (1000Z) National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO Mobile-Pensacola) discussion with their thinking about Gustav - and Hanna

2008-08-30T09:51:00.002-05:00

5 AM CDT (1000Z) National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO Mobile-Pensacola) discussion with their thinking about Gustav - and Hanna:

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WEAKENING THE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULFMEX AND BUILDING THE 850-700 MB RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE GUSTAV ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN-LINE WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...MOST OF THE HURRICANE TRACK MODELS...AND THE NHC FORECAST OF TAKING GUSTAV ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULFMEX AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AND MOVING IT INLAND OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

BASED ON THAT TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS (WHICH EXTEND WELL OUT TO THE EAST FOR 140-160 NAUTICAL MILES) MAY AFFECT OUR SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AND OFFSHORE ZONES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THROUGH LABOR DAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WE ALREADY HAVE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ADVERTISED FROM MOBILE COUNTY EASTWARD TO OKALOOSA COUNTY STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. WE WILL UPDATE THAT COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HERE IN ABOUT AN HOUR...AND RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT OF ANY COASTAL FLOODING WOULD COME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LABOR DAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

FORTUNATELY...WE ARE COMING OFF OUR SPRING TIDE CYCLE HEADING TOWARDS A NEAP CYCLE BY LABOR DAY...MEANING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WOULD NOT RANGE BEYOND A HALF-FOOT. STILL...WITH A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH OF WIND OFF THE GULF BY LABOR DAY...TIDAL PILING INCREASING THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

WHILE WE ARE STARTING TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN A SCENARIO TAKING HURRICANE GUSTAV INLAND OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY...WE STILL CAUTION FOLKS ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK BACK TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE IMPACTS OF GUSTAV ON OUR AREA.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING GUSTAV.

BEYOND TUESDAY GUSTAV SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND WE TAPER POPS BACK SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY...THEN ALL EYES WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS TROPICAL STORM (AND LIKELY BY THEN HURRICANE) HANNA MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE NHC TRACK MODELS AND OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TURNS HANNA TO THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHING CUBA BY THURSDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS...GFS AND ECMWF...TURN HANNA THEN NORTHEAST AND NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS STALLS THEN TAKES HANNA NORTH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...MOVING IT UP THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...WHILE THE ECMWF ROTATES HANNA ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THEN UP THE EASTERN GULF TOWARDS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN THOSE SCENARIOS IS NOT APPRECIABLY HIGH...SO WE WILL JUST HAVE TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER IN TIME BEFORE GIVING ANY SPECIFICS ON HANNA...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AND BE AWARE OF.

MARINE...NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE ON THE WATER THIS LABOR DAY HOLIDAY AS CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING DUE TO GUSTAV.

HURRICANE GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO CHURN NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH POTENTIAL LANDFALL BEING ALONG THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST IN THE ATCHAFALAYA/VERMILLION BAY AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

GRIDDED WIND DATA BRINGS WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL HAVE THIS HEADLINED ON THE MORNING PACKAGE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THERE.COASTAL WATERS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN FEELING THE IMPACT OF INCREASING SWELL EMANATING OUT FROM GUSTAV BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING DRAMATICALLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS GUSTAV NEARS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

LATEST GRIDS HAVE SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 20 FEET IN THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. VERY HAZARDOUS. SEAS WILL STAY HIGH UP THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SETTLING DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AS EFFECTS FROM GUSTAV WAIN.

DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS LONG PERIOD SWELL AND ROUGH SURF IMPACT THE BEACHES. NOTE: THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN THE THREAT CONE. ANY RIGHTWARD DEVIATION TO THE TRACK OF GUSTAV WILL INCREASE THE IMPACTS.

ALL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN. REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GUSTAV. /10
-30-

Gary Beeler, lead forecaster for the NWSFO Mobile-Pensacola, to be guest today at 11 AM (8/30/2008 / 1600Z) on WEBY AM-1330

2008-08-30T06:22:00.010-05:00

Gary Beeler, lead forecaster for the National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) Mobile-Pensacola, will discuss his thoughts on Gustav and Hannah on the "CyberSmart! Saturday" program hosted by Kenneth E. Lamb, and Glenn C. Obert of Webfoot Enterprises, airing Saturday (8/30/2008) at 11 AM on WEBY AM-1330. The station's beta test Internet streaming link is at http://cybersmartcomputers.com/.

The station broadcasts with a 25,000-watt signal that can by heard from Santa Rosa County to New Orleans. It is the only AM station that can be heard across all of Santa Rosa and Escambia County (FL). As the most powerful AM station on the Gulf coast between New Orleans and Tampa, its overall footprint covers everything south of a line drawn from Montgomery, then west to Hattiesburg, then SW to Metairie. WEBY AM-1330 covers more square miles than any other station, AM or FM, in the Pensacola Bay Area market.

The top priority will be Hurricane Gustav, growing rapidly, and predicted to become something between a Cat 3 or 4 - with some predicting a possible 5. The NHC's official forecast takes Gustav west of New Orleans, but its effects may be felt into this market.
-30-

Read the NWSFO discussion for a better picture of Gustav

2008-08-29T08:43:00.004-05:00

Below is the latest from the National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) Mobile-Pensacola. As you know, I place the NWSFO forecast high above anything from the NHC.

The NHC's Fay error rate was obscene. So far, Gustav isn't much better.

For the past 3 days, the NHC ignored Gustav's reality on the ground. Despite the fact that Gustav was visibly moving S and SW, the NHC still put out maps blind to that reality. The NHC's paths were consistently to the NW, while the real-time, and near real-time data and observations told the world Gustav was moving otherwise. At season's end, NHC has very serious explaining to do.

The joker in the deck is the air pattern over the Gulf today. The models are flawed - again - in handling it. The problem is that flawed analysis could spell - SURPRISE! - Gustav in our area. The NWSFO 4 AM Discussion explains why:

(All discussions are all caps - nobody is "shouting" . . .)

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE STORY ON GUSTAV MAY BE A COMPLICATED ONE WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.

GUSTAV WILL PROBABLY START TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON OUR AREA BY LATE THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE IMPACTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

SATELLITE AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOWS GUSTAV GETTING MORE ORGANIZED THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK STILL TAKES GUSTAV ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GULF AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...THEN TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY...CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS MADE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

MANY OF US ALONG THE ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST MAY HAVE BEGUN TO ENTERTAIN THE IDEA THAT GUSTAV WOULD MORE LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL FARTHER WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT BEING THIS EARLY IN THE GAME THAT IS PRE-MATURE.

THERE ARE COMPLICATING FACTORS IN THE FORECAST MAKING THE TRACK FORECAST OF GUSTAV PROBLEMATIC. THE MAIN FACTOR THAT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF GUSTAV EARLY ON IS THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THAT TROUGH EXTENDS DEEPER INTO THE GULF THAN WHAT MAY HAVE BEEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND APPEARS TO STILL BE DIGGING AS IT IS SHARPENED UP TO THE SOUTH BY THE SMALL UPPER VORTEX SEEN SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA.

THAT TROUGH MAY START TO INFLUENCE THE MOTION OF GUSTAV EARLY ON IN THE GAME...AND COULD REQUIRE A BIT OF A SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK BACK TO THE EAST ON SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES (THAT IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT A POSSIBILITY).

(My note: Read the following two paragraphs very, very, carefully, as it pertains to exactly what I wrote above about "the joker in the deck"):

WE CAUTION OUR COMMUNITIES TO NOT FOCUS ON THE LITTLE BLACK DOTTED LINE ON THE INTERNET IMAGES...AND INSTEAD WE SHOULD STRESS THAT THERE ARE LIKELY TRACK ERRORS INVOLVED HERE.

THE AREA OF UNCERTAINTY (THE "CONE") STILL ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF OUR AREA FOR VERY GOOD REASONS...AND WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET. HAVING SAID ALL OF THAT...THE 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY IS PREDICATED UPON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST (WHICH IS ABOUT THE BEST EDUCATED GUESS THE NWS CAN MAKE RIGHT NOW)...BRINGING POPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WE GET ON THE WET EASTERN SIDE OF GUSTAV...WITH THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

MOST OF THE NUMERICAL NHC TRACK GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE HWRF - "Ed. note - this model is the NHC's "Holy Writ" these days.") IS STILL CLUSTERED WEST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST.

THE GFDL AND GFS ARE THE FARTHEST EAST TAKING THE CENTER OF THEN HURRICANE GUSTAV CLOSER TO THE MOBILE AREA. THE LONGER TERM TRACK OF GUSTAV OVER THIS WEEKEND WOULD STILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH THE DEGREE OF WEAKNESS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THAT RIDGE DETERMINING HOW FAR EAST OR WEST GUSTAV MAKES LANDFALL.

FORTUNATELY, THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE G-IV AIRCRAFT WILL BE DOWN THERE TONIGHT GETTING A MUCH BETTER LOOK AT THE COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE GULF. THE MORE DETAILED DATA FROM THOSE MISSIONS SHOULD START GETTING INTO THE TRACK MODELS AND SHOULD HELP THE NWS GAIN A SOMEWHAT CLEARER PICTURE AS TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK EVOLUTION OF GUSTAV.

STAY TUNED.

BEYOND TUESDAY...WE KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK GIVEN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULFMEX...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY...THEN WE WILL NEED TO START WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENTS WITH HANNA TO THE EAST.

MARINE...TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM JAMAICA TODAY AND INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STATUS AS IT HEADS NORTHWEST FOR THE CAYMANS. IF PLANNING FOR SOME BOATING RECREATION...BEST FIT IT IN TODAY AND FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...EFFECTS FROM GUSTAV WILL BEGIN MAKING AN IMPACT.

FORECASTERS ANTICIPATE A SUBSTANTIAL RISE IN SWELL/SEA HEIGHT BEGINNING SUNDAY AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CALLS FOR GUSTAV TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE...MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST GULF. THE LATEST TRACK IS KEYING ON SOUTH LOUISIANA AS POTENTIAL LANDFALL BY LATE TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM / HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR SEAS TO BUILD UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25 FEET OVER THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BY MONDAY.

(Ed. Note: If you didn't get it the first time, the NWSFO forecaster is trying to to make sure you get it now. Read, and believe, the following.)

REMEMBER...DO NOT JUST FOCUS ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV...BUT THE THREAT CONE AS ERRORS CAN BE 225 MILES ON DAY 4 AND 300 MILES ON DAY 5 EITHER SIDE OF THE TRACK.

FROM THE LATEST 09Z TRACK...OUR AREA REMAINS A POTENTIAL TARGET. ALL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
/10

We will post our Deep Background forecast a little later this morning; check back about 11 AM. In addition, we are now integrated into the Escambia County (FL) and Santa Rosa County (FL) EOC message networks. I am gong to try and expand the coverage to reflect the signal of WEBY AM-1330's 25,000-watt signal that covers everything from Santa Rosa County to New Orleans bay adding Baldwin and Mobile County's EOC messages. This is important for you, because it will give you a better feel for a regional event.

It is truly going to be Your Link to Life(tm) if Gustav hits.

Check out the WEBY AM-1330 website at:

http://1330weby.com

Generally speaking, posts from here go up there about an hour after they appear here.
-30-

From the NW FL BBB - Prepare now!

2008-08-28T10:11:00.004-05:00

ALERT

BBB: prepare now in case of disaster

As Hurricane Gustav makes its way into the Gulf of Mexico, your Better Business Bureau of Northwest Florida is offering the following tips for businesses and consumers.

Businesses:

1) Identify staff essential for resumption of business and keep a list of their contact information in a location that can be accessed by all key employees.

2) Devise an emergency communications plan that outlines how your business will communicate with employees, customers, vendors, the media and other audiences.

3) Develop a business interruption plan with details on how to minimize loss of jobs and business activity. Visit www.ready.gov/business or www.floridadisaster.org/business for sample plans.

4) Keep duplicates of personnel, payroll, accounting and other essential records at an off-site location. Make backups of important computer files.

5) Know how to contact local law enforcement, the Red Cross, FEMA and other disaster-relief agencies.

6) Keep emergency supplies such as flashlights with extra batteries, first aid kit, food and water at your place of business.

Consumers:

1) Visit http://www.ready.gov/ to find checklists and downloads to create a plan.

2) If you plan to evacuate, plan out your destination and route in advance and know what items you will take with you. Visit http://www.floridadisaster.org/ to find evacuation routes in your community.

3) If you are not evacuating, stock enough nonperishable food, water, prescription and non-prescription medications to last at least 5-7 days.

4) Be prepared to use alternative cooking devices such as a charcoal grill or a camp stove. Only use these items outdoors in a well-ventilated area.

5) Keep at least half a tank of gas in your automobile.

6) Make sure you have driver’s licenses, insurance cards, Social Security cards, passports and birth certificates stored in a secure yet easily-accessible area in case you need to evacuate. Consider making copies in case originals are misplaced or destroyed.

7) Have your checking account number readily available. Even if you rarely write checks, you can still authorize an important payment over the phone.

8) Have enough cash to cover necessary purchases. ATMs and credit card machines will not work without electricity.

9) Make a list of the local and toll-free numbers for your bank, credit card companies, mortgage lender, brokerage firms and insurance companies and have your account numbers handy. You may need to contact these providers to defer a payment, replace lost cards or open a new account.

10) Make sure you have your safe deposit box key—you cannot get into your safe deposit box without your key, no matter what forms of identification you present.

11) Listen to your local emergency management officials for updates on community preparations, evacuation orders and other critical information.

Business owners, managers and consumers can find additional preparedness information and advice they can trust at bbb.org.
###

Better Business Bureau of Northwest Florida
912 E. Gadsden Street Pensacola, FL 32501 850.429.0026 Accredited member line

2012 Lisenby Ave. Ste. B Panama City, FL 32405 800.729.9226 Toll Free

info@nwfl.bbb.org

bbb.org
-30-

Thursday, 8/28/2008 - issued at 8:32 AM CDT (1332Z) - Welcome to the Hotel Gustav!

2008-08-28T08:44:00.004-05:00

TROPICAL UPDATE
Thursday, Aug. 28, 2008
---------------------------------
Timestamp: 2:25 a.m.
Major update included: 4:04 a.m.

Here's the latest forecast on Gustav, from our exclusive "Deep Background" source!

You'll find all his forecasts at:

Your "Link to Life"(tm) Gulf Hurricanes Blog
http://gulfhurricanes.blogspot.com

Tell your friends about this website and its first-tier hurricane forecasts!

Visit the WEBY AM-1330 website at:
http://1330weby.com/

Welcome to the Hotel Gustav!

You can check out anytime you want, but you can never leave.

WILL HURRICANE GUSTAV HIT PENSACOLA, FLORIDA?

It will be close. Currently, Pensacola is in the real target zone.

My gut says, "no," but computer models don't agree with my gut.

REMEMBER:

1. The timing will change.

2. The National Hurricane Center's timeline is more compact.

MAJOR UPDATE:

3. Center of Gustav dives south of Jamaica . . .

THIS COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING.

It's the same ballgame, but it's the next inning.

WINDOW INTO SLIDING TIMELINE:

TODAY: Gustav staggers to get a footing.

FRIDAY, Aug. 29: Gustav stumbles near Jamaica.

SATURDAY, Aug. 30: Gustav travels below Cuba.

SUNDAY, Aug. 31: Gustav near the western tip of Cuba.

1. We'll know if we need to board up. Get Ready.

2. Gustav takes off like a rocket crossing the Gulf.

MONDAY, Sept. 1: Gustav 150 miles near Pensacola, to the south.

1. D-Day for Pensacola.

2. Gustav spies Houston to Pensacola, and picks a target.

TUESDAY, Sept. 2: Gustva landfall somewhere between Texas to Pensacola.

WEDNESDAY, Sept. 3: Gustav gone.

---------------------------------

CURRENT FFIP MODEL: Targeting North Texas, with an eastward trend.

CURRENT FFIP GUT MODEL: Two Mexico landfalls.

CURRENT FFIP FANTASY MODEL: Landfall in same spot as Fay in South Florida.

---------------------------------

HOW STRONG WILL GUSTVA BE AT LANDFALL?

We don't know exactly, but can say Cat. 1 to a Cat. 3.

If it hits, it's going to mess your day up.

WHAT SHOULD I WATCH FOR?

When looking at weather graphics:

If there is a BIG "H" over Pensacola, WE ARE GOLD !!!

If the BIG "H" moves away: RUN.

WHAT SHOULD I DO?

1. Find your insurance papers. All of them.

2. Mail out or e-pay any bill you can.

3. Top off your tank while gas is cheaper.

4. Watch. Don' panic yet. It's only Thursday.

GOT ANY OTHER CHEERY NEWS?

Right now, everything has to be perfect for Pensacola to be hit.

Nothing is ever perfect in Pensacola, but we do get hit.

DID YOU HEAR ABOUT THE NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION?

Don't worry about it.
-30-

You'll find all his forecasts at:

Your "Link to Life"(tm) Gulf Hurricanes Blog
http://gulfhurricanes.blogspot.com

Tell your friends about this website and its first-tier hurricane forecasts!

Visit the WEBY AM-1330 website at:
http://1330weby.com/

Thanks again for freely sharing your invaluable expertise

2008-08-27T23:32:00.003-05:00

A big thank you to Gail in Houston for this email:

Hello, and thank you very much for the easy to understand reporting of Gustav.

I found your url on the Hurricane City forum. I will be checking in daily to read what you have to say about this hurricane.

I wish Berwick Boy was still posting on that forum, his forecasting I could respect. Yours reminds me of his.

So thanks again for freely sharing your invaluable expertise. I'm in Houston and will be staying away, as I always do, from the boob tube and all mainstream media.

Gail

Thank you for your dedication and hard work

2008-08-27T23:24:00.002-05:00

Everybody enjoys a little positive reinforcement from others, and I'm just as human as everyone else. I received several emails recently, and I will intersperse them with the regular features of this blog.
+++++++++++++++

Dear Mr. Lamb,

I've just recently found and reviewed your Blog Page and found it very informative.

Like many people, I previously relied solely on the NHC for track and intensity data.
When our "uninvited guest" hit the Gulf, I start watching the buoy info.

My question is this: Has anyone crunched data on who, of the various model agencies, has been the most accurate historically??

My father was a Naval Hurricane Hunter out of Padre Island, Texas.

He was not a fan of the NHC or the Weather Channel after they formed.

He felt that in recent years they had become commercialized to the point of being reckless. He also felt more people should be educated on retrieving data and learn the difference between hype and fact.

You addressed these issues more eloquently and that is why I decided to contact you.

Your site has been passed on to everyone I know and the feedback has been favorable.

Thank you for your dedication and hard work.

Sincerely,
Sherrie C.
Pensacola, Fl.

P.S.
I just saw the westward jog reported on TWC. This may send Gustav to clip the Yucatan Peninsula, which you advised on Tropical Update for Monday, Aug. 25, 2008.
-30-

Wednesday, August 27, 2008 tropical update for Gustav from our "Deep Background" source

2008-08-27T12:51:00.006-05:00

Tropical Update / Wednesday, Aug. 27, 2008

Here's the latest forecast on Gustav, from our exclusive "Deep Background" source!

You'll find all his forecasts at:

Your "Link to Life"(tm) Gulf Hurricanes Blog
http://gulfhurricanes.blogspot.com/

Tell your friends about this website and its first-tier hurricane forecasts!

Visit the WEBY AM-1330 website at: http://1330weby.com

Future path of Gustav

Once we get past Gustav, Pensacola will not have to worry about a tropical system for a few weeks.

We are NOT past Gustav yet, and Pensacola has to worry.

Tropical Storm Fay crawled like a bug; Gustav will sprint like a cheetah.

Sunday, Aug. 31: Gustav will be at the tip of Cuba.

Monday, Sept. 1: (Labor Day) Gustav will be in the middle of the Gulf.

Tuesday, Sept. 2: Forecast stall, the fork in the road. Pick your poison.

Currently: FFIP Model says Brownsville, Texas.

TOTAL TARGET LANDFALL AREA

Somewhere between Brownsville, Texas to Tampa.

1. Landfall locations will change every day.

2. We will know by Friday if Pensacola needs to be focused on prepping for the storm.

LANDFALL LESSONS FROM THE PAST

Gulf Hurricanes: When a storm is forecast to move northward, the landfall trend is more east of the forecast landfall.

Pensacola is east of the current track. That's doesn't MEAN Pensacola will not be hit.

WHY IS THE LANDFALL TARGET CHANGING?

1. The strong Jet Stream that we hoped would re-enforce the wind that would help protect Pensacola, is not going to happen.

2. The Jet Stream will pass over the Dakotas, and not plunge south.

3. A blast of strong air would have pushed Gustav well away from Pensacola.

GUSTAV HITS NEW ORLEANS?

There is plenty of fuel for the storm to make a powerful landfall.

Pensacola would be fine because we would be on the outer edges of the storm.

DID FAY DO FLORIDA A FAVOR?

Fay turned down the temperature of the Gulf water south of Pensacola.

This means Gustav would weaken before landfall, but could still do great damage.

HOW STRONG WILL GUSTAV GET?

1. Most likely, Gustav will be a strong Cat. 3 during the majority of its duration.

2. Once you hear about "eyewall replacement cycles," the National Hurricane Center has difficulty predicting how strong a storm will be at landfall.

3. A hurricane weakens during an "eyewall replacement cycle."

WHAT KIND OF HURRICANE WILL GUSTAV BE AT LANDFALL?

Tight strong winds near the eye, weaker winds from the center.

Fast mover, like being shot with a .38 caliber Saturday Night Special, unless you're close, you won't get hit, and just get powder burns.

WHEN SHOULD I BOARD UP?

Get ready, but wait for Sunday.

WHAT ABOUT GAS PRICES?

If it's a Texas/Mississippi storm, expect the recent price drop to halt.$4 to $4.50 and return to about $3.75 is a few weeks.
-30-

You'll find all his forecasts at:

Your "Link to Life"(tm) Gulf Hurricanes Blog

http://gulfhurricanes.blogspot.com

Tell your friends about this website and its first-tier hurricane forecasts!

Visit the WEBY AM-1330 website at:

http://1330weby.com/

Crown Weather's take on Gustav from this AM

2008-08-26T16:07:00.002-05:00

Gustav continues to intensify early this morning and currently has maximum winds of 85 mph and a minimum pressure of 984 millibars. Satellite imagery is showing a organizing storm and it appears that Gustav is definitely not done intensifying before it tracks over southwestern Haiti late this afternoon into the first half of tonight. After Gustav tracks over southwestern Haiti, the hurricane is forecast to be over extremely warm waters with relatively light shear and it is expected that Gustav will be a major hurricane and may reach Category 4 strength in the northwestern Caribbean from Friday through Saturday.

In fact, both the GFDL and HWRF model forecasts indicate that Gustav may be an even stronger hurricane with the GFDL forecasting a 160 mph Category 5 hurricane on Saturday and the HWRF model forecasting Gustav to become a 150 to 155 mph Category 4 hurricane by late Saturday night. All indications are that Gustav will be an extremely dangerous hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea by late this week into this weekend.

Gustav is currently tracking northwest at a forward speed of 9 mph. The latest track model guidance is showing that Gustav should turn back to the west or west-northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours as a upper level trough of low pressure over the western Atlantic is forecast to move to the east away from Gustav, leaving a ridge of high pressure over the Bahamas and Florida. The latest global models have come into much better agreement that Gustav will turn to the west or west-northwest within the next 24 to 36 hours due to the building ridge of high pressure.

It looks to me that Gustav will track through the very warm waters somewhere between the north coast of Jamaica and the south coast of Cuba from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. After that, Gustav will track into the northwestern Caribbean south of Cuba on Friday and Saturday where I expect it to intensify to Category 4 strength. I then expect Gustav to track right through the Yucatan Channel and into the southern most Gulf of Mexico late Saturday night as a powerful Category 4 hurricane. All interests in the western and northwestern Caribbean should be aware that a very powerful and dangerous hurricane could affect you late this week into this weekend.

Beyond late Saturday night, the global models have different ideas on where they want to track Gustav. The Canadian model is forecasting a landfall on the central Texas coast on Labor Day. The NOGAPS model is forecasting a landfall on the central Gulf Coast next Tuesday. The European model is forecasting a northern Mexico landfall around next Tuesday. The overall synoptic situation once Gustav gets into the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend will highly depend on the timing of a departing eastern trough of low pressure and a building ridge of high pressure that will move in behind the departing trough.

If the departing trough is able to pick up Gustav, then a eastern Gulf Coast hit may occur as early as Labor Day. If the trough of low pressure leaves Gustav behind and the ridge of high pressure pushes Gustav further west, then a central or western Gulf Coast hit may occur late Labor Day or next Tuesday.

Right now, as of this morning, I am leaning much more towards either a northern or western Gulf Coast hit on Labor Day or next Tuesday with the highest risk from the western Florida Panhandle westward to the Texas coastline and the high risk area centered on the Louisiana and Mississippi coastline. Therefore, all interests along the entire Gulf Coast, especially folks from the Alabama coastline westward to the Texas coastline should pay very close attention to the forecast for Gustav.

I will be monitoring this situation very closely and keep you all updated.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT Wednesday morning. I will try to issue an update to this discussion sometime this evening between 7 and 9 pm EDT.
-30-

Pensacola needs to watch this one

2008-08-26T13:38:00.002-05:00

Here's the latest from my "Deep Background" source:

PENSACOLA NEEDS TO WATCH THIS ONE.

WILL PENSACOLA GET HIT?

1. It's all in the timing.

2. We have a very strong Jet Stream coming in from Canada.

3. How that Jet Stream plunges over America will decide where Gustav heads.

4. Gulf of Mexico has the fuel to keep it major hurricane.

WHAT DO WE KNOW AT THIS TIME?

1. Gustav will be at least a Cat. 3 storm.

2. Don't be surprised if the storm turns towards Pensacola this coming weekend.

3. Don't panic, this weekend's weather will be normal.
+++++++++++

We will post more as it becomes available. Check back this evening.
-30

NHC Fay forecasts: Wrong 79.9% of the time

2008-08-26T12:15:00.005-05:00

I received the following hyperlink called a verification routine that contrasts the official NHC forecast against what actually occurred. It also tosses in a couple of the leading NHC computer models as well. You will see for yourself that the NHC forecast was wrong 79.9% of the time.

Over the entire 7 day period represented in the routine, there are 14 frames, placed 12-hours apart. Of the 14, only 3 are reasonably close to what actually happened. The other 11, as you will see for yourself, are far off from anything happening on the ground.

This matters because had the NHC used the real-time, and near real-time data observations available to it, those forecasts could have been much more accurate.

The effect of the NHC's failure to use non-model data over their models - that cost hundreds of millions of dollars - is that the major populations centers in SW, SE and E central Fl were denied days of early warning, while population centers along Florida's west cost spent days of useless stress and expense waiting for the tropical cyclone that never had a prayer of hitting there area as the NC predicted.

Later in the storm's progress, the NHC drumbeat told residents that Fay was dead, that she would not survive the trip across FL.

The truth is that Fay tightened up, and survived quite nicely - to create the flooding disaster she became for that area of the state.

NHC models caused even more harm when Fay, again predicted to die over land, did not, and soaked the panhandle with flooding rains.

The final insult from the NHC's model-addiction occurred when Fay was predicted to go across the panhandle, then cruise along the MS shore for a date with New Orleans.

The problem comes from the fact that water vapor loops the Friday before Fay's predicted visit to Pensacola and points west expected Saturday into Sunday and Monday, proved that she never had a chance of getting anywhere down that path. A slug of very dry air nosed itself all the way to New Orleans, while NHC said told everyone Fay would go, and obliterated any chance whatsoever of the NHC forecast coming true.

Regardless of the indisputable reality that Fay wold never hit Pensacola and points west, the NHC continued telling people it would. This exacted a significant human toll in terms of stress and disrupted lives. It further extracted a highly significant financial toll in completely useless activations of the area Emergency Operations Centers - in Florida alone, we are talking about perhaps several hundred thousand dollars all told.

One of the greatest costs was tot he credibility of local National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, and the local media relaying their predictions. Despite the fact the predictions could never occur, local forecasters have to parrot the NHC line, and the divergence between what they told people would happen - calling for 8 - 12 inches of rain on a day when the skies over Pensacola were sunny with broken clouds dropping an official .03 inches of rain - did nothing but put the idea of the NHC crying "Wolf!" for its unknown reasons.

View the frames, and see this for yourself.

I'll follow up on this with another post. I will also contribute a Viewpoint on this, and some other aspects of the NHC's forecast quality, later this week.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at200806_verify.gif
-30-

Two timely takes on Gustav

2008-08-25T22:51:00.003-05:00

From my Deep Background source focusing on the north central Gulf coast:

Gustav boots up

Tropical Update for Monday, Aug. 25, 2008

On Sunday, Aug. 31,Gustav will be touching the tip of Yucatan, 600 miles due south of Pensacola. That's as far as I can take it.

POSSIBILITIES:

1. It's a Mexico landfall on Wednesday, Sept. 3

2. It swings to the northwest as a U.S. threat during the first week of September.

HOW STRONG WILL GUSTAV BE?

On it's current track, it will pass over warm water below Cuba, so it has small amount of fuel available, but the atmosphere should help in preventing a monster storm.

WHAT SHOULD I WORRY ABOUT?

If Gustav travels to the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical moisture picked up by Fay will be back for Gustav to use. We will know by Friday, Aug. 29 if Pensacola area will have to deal with this one.

WHAT ELSE IS OUT THERE?

Two tropical waves coming Africa at least one will be "Hanna"One currently named, "Invest95L" we'll never have to worry about.

From Crown Weather:

I wanted to update this discussion to let you all know that the Hurricane Hunters have found data supporting the upgrade of Tropical Depression Seven to Tropical Storm Gustav.

As of early this afternoon, maximum winds inside Gustav were 60 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for intensification with the SHIPS intensity model forecasting that Gustav will intensify to 80 mph in 24 hours and 90 mph in 48 hours. It should be noted that the latest GFDL model forecasts that Gustav may be a 90 to 95 mph hurricane in the northwest Caribbean on Saturday and the HWRF model is forecasting that Gustav may be a 100 mph hurricane in the northwest Caribbean on Saturday.

Gustav is currently tracking northwest at a forward speed of 14 mph. There is an unusually large spread to the track model guidance that shows two possible track camps: Camp 1 would be a generally northward track into a weakness in the ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic, and this is depicted by the NOGAPS model and the European model. Camp 2 is for Gustav to bend more to the west in response to a high pressure system over Florida, and that is depicted by the BAM tracks, the HWRF and the GFDL model.

The National Hurricane Center forecast splits the two camps, however, looking at the steering charts, I think the idea of Camp 2 seems more reasonable and Gustav may track in the area of the Caribbean between Cuba and Jamaica and then potentially into the northwest Caribbean as a hurricane by Saturday.

Gustav needs to be watched very closely as it poses a threat to Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas. This system also will need to be watched closely in the Cayman Islands, the Yucatan Peninsula and also along the entire US coastline as its exact forecast track is uncertain at this point.

I will be monitoring this situation very closely and keep you all updated.
-30-

Feedback about the current state of the NHC and its forecasts: HURRICANE MIRANDA RIGHTS, and the human and fiancial costs the NHC is causing

2008-08-24T22:05:00.008-05:00

I got this from a "deep background" source of mine. I'm leaving out the name because I don't have permission to use it.

In the journalism professional, "deep background" stories are somewhat of a conflict for editors. On the one hand, the editors know their journalists aren't going to just make up quotes - the problem is that the reading public doesn't know journalists won't just make up quotes. So the general rule of thumb is that unless you are getting your deep background from the president or a cabinet-level official, you can't use deep background.

Fortunately for me, I'm my own editor, and I know I didn't make up the following quotes. If you think I've turned to fiction writing, then you probably don't believe anything else I'm writing, so thanks for visiting . . . sorry I won't see you again.

Now for those who know that after more than two-and-a-half decades in the profession, I'm not going to blow off my professional reputation on a blog post. The italicized copy I added to clarify who or what is being referenced by the author since this is an email to me and the author and I know who and what is being referenced through our professional relationship:

From: XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Date: Sun, 24 Aug 2008 21:36:29 -0500
To: "Kenneth Lamb" kenneth@kennethelamb.com
Subject: 9:36 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 24, 2008

I had to work Sunday.

At 8 p.m. Saturday night, I said to everybody, "Don't be surprised if it's sunny"
I got the "HOW CAN THAT BE?"

Only person to really correct it (the NHC's inaccurate forecast about Fay) at that point would have been Allen Seals at WKRG 5, and I don't know him.

I felt awful all Saturday night...

...and "Tropical Depression Gustav" will be Tuesday/Wednesday news.

Tell Mike Bates (owner of WEBY AM-1330, "Northwest Florida's News Talk Radio and the home of the "Link to Life"(tm) programming format) the Saturday 30-minute commercial-free show was GREAT.

Went by very quickly and was a voice of reason in the hype.

The earlier tech show sounded like every local show in California.

I have followed Fay since it's first rain drop and I can tell you this:

1. The computer models have been wrong.

2. The model runs just didn't match up with real-time weather patterns.

3. The NHC forecasts seem to be accurate only 12 to 18 hours ahead.

Fay was more like a rain storm in the shape of a donut with a name.

I learned, weak tropical systems are very difficult for the NHC.

MESSAGES FOR THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA:

Those WHO HAVE NEVER BEEN through a hurricane: It's not glamorous.

Those WHO HAVE BEEN through a hurricane: We don't need practice. We know what to do and it's not glamorous.

HURRICANE MIRANDA RIGHTS

1. Never tell the public that everything will be fine.

2. Never tell the public that they don't have to board up.

3. The public has the right to know the truth, but they do not need to be told.

4. Put all your trust into computer models that don't match real-world weather patterns.

5. Don't plan for your community, plan for future congressional hearings.

+++++++++++++++++++

Now back to me:

I am truly saddened by what I'm watching tonight (Sunday, August 24, 2008). In Pensacola, they are still calling for the 20 mph winds and gusts to 30.

Can we get a reality check here? Yeah, it's 14 mph at the airport, right on the waterfront. Go inland 3 city blocks and it's 10 mph. Go 1 mile inland, and it's 3 mph - 5 at my home about 2 miles inland. Officially, we are up to .03 inches of rain.

Journey over to Mobile, and the evening forecast calls for winds "around 20 mph." The official reporting station at the airport has been hanging steady between 6 and 9 for hours.

So how's things in New Orleans? Take a look at the radar, and it's a very colorful image.

But how does their reality check hold up?

At the airport, they are up to 1.3 inches for the entire day; this when a forecast has called for "heavy rains" all day long.

If you go to the radar for the storm totals, yes, you will find some 3 inches swaths. They are short and isolated.

But if we are going to be honest about all this, it is nothing that you don't see anytime in summer from a slow moving thunderstorm and a squall line passing through. It is not any kind of extraordinary occurrence.

I'm getting more and more positive feedback from professionals, journalists, academics, and emergency management leaders who are telling their own tales of dissatisfaction with the NHC's long-term mismanagement of forecasts.

My mailbox is being filled with one story after another story of the human toll these forecasts extracted in their area: true hurricane survivors of Ivan, Katrina, Wilma, Rita (even though Rita is west of my usual coverage area, I'm getting responses to emails forwarded to their associates in the Rita area sent by those in my usual coverage area); people who live the nightmares all over again at the very mention of a tropical cyclone wreaking havoc on their lives - my email correspondents are furious at being turned into foolish talking heads who have no choice but to pass-on the flawed NHC forecasts even though they know they are over-hyped by the NHC and will never come true.

I'm also hearing about the financial costs the NHC is causing. I mentioned it in my previous post, and it deserves mentioning again: In an era of taxpayer rebellion, cranking up the EOC is an extremely expensive task. You have massive overtime, overhead, physical plant operating costs, and all the associated costs of putting up web posts (webmasters don't work for free), printing up press releases and distributing them, additional bandwidth costs (yes, bandwidth providers charge commercial accounts by usage and not by flat consumer rates), to name just a few.

What makes it worse is that while you can "guess-timate" what you will need to spend in any one year, the budget-cutting ax is falling heavy on EOC operations because for the last 2 years nothing significant has hit the US.

How exactly do you tell your budget-setting governmental unit that you need X dollars this year when you were way over-budgeted the last 2 years?

EOC managers are having to fight to keep their funds because lobbyist-pressured politicians want to put the perceived over-budget allocation into other line items screaming for cash.

You get the idea. This is not a game; the NHC's forecasting blunders are costing people their mental health (and that's not even close to hype - have you looked at what's happened in New Orleans and SE Florida concerning people stressed out to the point of needing pharmaceutical support to deal with it?)

The Fay insanity is like a nightmare that you can't awake from.

But you must keep in mind the real problem is ongoing, and has been for years. The NHC is an out-of-control agency without any effective oversight.

It's got to stop.

Or else the NHC must be stopped.
-30-

Let's talk about Tropical Storm Fay: How many more error-filled forecasts can NHC make before heads roll?

2008-08-23T16:10:00.011-05:00

Last night (Friday, August 22, 2008) , about 11 PM CDT, I noticed what anyone with eyes and access to the water vapor loop (this is time-sensitive, so if you don't read this post by 10 PM CDT, the loop will not reflect what I've written) could plainly see for themselves; Fay didn't have a prayer of getting to Pensacola, let alone fulfilling the track plotted all the way to New Orleans by the NHC.

Why do I bring this up? Because it's time for us to tell the NHC we are not going to let those in positions of responsibility - EOC managers, local forecast offices, schools, law enforcement, newspapers, radio stations, TV stations - the entire list of public servants and public information outlets whose own credibility with the public rests on the quality of NHC forecasts - to be sacrificed because the NHC is addicted to its obviously flawed models.

It is without any doubt addicted to them to the point of excluding real time data that tells any responsible forecaster the model's forecast is useless.

In an earlier post ( Fay is deja vu 1997 Danny - from HurricaneCity.com Message Board ) I brought out the fact that when Fay was stalled south of Cuba, and the vortex messages made it indisputably clear she was stalled, and therefore she would begin her turn to the north and northeast far further south than what the NHC was advertising, this reality based data was summarily dissed by one aspiring student of hurricane science. He is an accurate reflection of the mentality he is hoping to lead as a media star entombed in the NHC mind-set.

Why did it matter? Well, for one thing, think about all the wasted money spent up the west cost of Florida prepping for a storm that would never arrive. Do you think it's cheap to open up the EOCs of major urban markets and run in Level 2? Think about how much more to run at Level 1.

And what about social stress, as people in the faux warning area tense up because they are scared of "The Big One" knocking at their door? A knock, that everyone who was intellectually honest about this knew would never come.

At the same time, think about the social tension of thinking it isn't going to come your way, and suddenly - surprise! - here comes a tropical cyclone that for several days wasn't a concern.

Let me stop here to say that I've heard all the NHC's excuses. These people should write fine-print contracts the way they build loopholes into their discussions. It's never their fault, the excuses are tryingly endless: that's the weather for you; it's an inexact science; we told you we had low confidence (their favorite with Fay); and so on and so on.

People generally accept these excuses because there is a sliver of truth in each of them. And let's face it, the NHC is so jargon-ridden that they have succeeded in building an arcane language system impenetrable by ordinary people. The forecasters sit before the cameras in their expensively designed studio with a constantly looping satellite image, spew off with a smile, and what are you going to do - argue with them? Have you ever noticed no one ever asks any tough questions, or brings up inconvenient truths like the dry air slug that turned the last 18 hours of NHC forecasts into impossible-to-occur lies?

Another factor limiting argument is legal. Have you bothered to read all the disclaimers people run these days to protect themselves from lawsuits? One forecaster wit refers to them as "The Web Site Miranda Rights."

Parroting the NHC is safe - you are reporting, not predicting. I gagged the other night when Dr. Steve Lyons of The Weather Channel spouted off about how Fay was dead over the east coast of Florida, would never amount to another threat, and would have no chance of reinvigorating itself as it moved across north Florida into the Gulf.

Gee Steve, tell that to the people betwen Tallahassee and Lake City who are getting pounded by 20 inches of rain the past 2 days. Tell that to the people of SW Florida who are still getting rain bands.

But you have to understand this: He has no choice; it's quack the NHC line, or take a chance on The Weather Channel franchise getting sued into bankruptcy. Really, what would you do?

So it's time to put the blame exactly were it belongs - on the NHC forecasters.

1) They are addicted to models: Tell me what you would do - it's time to go to Congress for funding. You can tell them you have all that you need in the way of electronics and computerized data gathering - and watch them cut your budget to ribbons.

Or, you can tell them about all the horrible mess that ooccurs now because the NHC lacks the new model that will make sure that forecasting goes to a new, previously unattained level of accuracy - saving millions of dollars, and hundreds of lives . . . yada, yada, yada.

And let's not forget that they need their own jet fleet - Hurricane Hunters are just so "yesterday."

And they have to fund conferences. And travel. And continuing education. And TV studios. And publishing. (Publish or perish, right?) And . . .

Now I'm not saying some isn't needed, but you get the drift. Who, exactly, is looking over their shoulder?

And shades of a liberal arts college - they even had a forecaster rebellion - as in a college-equivalent faculty senate rebellion - against the appointed head of the agency. Tell me one other government agency that has ever pulled that off.

Nobody. The NHC is a world all its own. And it is accountable to no one.

OK, so you're a member of Congress on a so-called oversight committee. Are you going to vote against making sure millions of new dollars are pumped into your district to fund the NHC's latest, and greatest, computer model and support equipment?

And when it hits the floor, are you going to vote against saving lives? Are you going to take the hit for all those shots of New Orleans flooded out by Katrina (ignoring the fact that it was the Army Corps of Engineers who botched the job with the levees. If they had been built properly, Katrina's flood would not have occurred. Another inconvenient truth, right . . .)?

Well, how would you vote?

2) The NHC is not accountable to anyone: When it comes to excuse-making, the NHC is without equal. We hit on that above. Tell me, who holds an adversarial role to make sure the NHC does its job?

Face it, the entire NOAA organization is one big professorial pool . . talk about foxes guarding the hen house.

3) The NHC is surrounded by suck-up wannabes: Sorry, did I just step on your toes? Face it, chasing hurricanes is more fun than tornadoes. For one thing, you can't miss the general area where it will be. Have you ever watched the disappointed looks on the faces of the tornado chasers who dropped a couple thousand to chase nothing in the 2 weeks they had with their guide? Give me the eye of a hurricane any day over the fleeting seconds of a tornado.

And I'll admit I'm guilty of loving the Hurricane Chasers' adrenaline rush. What I love even more is getting paid by people like the NY Times and the Miami Herald to get that rush. I've been doing this for about 15 years, and spent my time in the eye or near eye of about 40 storms over those years.

If the hurricane isn't making landfall in that swath, I cover their affect, and do background for any hurricane affecting anywhere on the Gulf coast from Port Charlotte to New Orleans, so tack on another 60 or so storms. I cover Hurricane Alley out of Pensacola - the very heart of it on the north Gulf coast. Over those years I've built a number of mutually respectful professional relationships with National Weather Service Forecast Office ( NWSFO ) forecasters, EOC professionals, university professors, people in "the weather business," and some very sharp journalists.

It is my respect for them, and seeing them take the credibility hit for the NHC's "ignore reality" attitude, that prompted this post. I am expressing their feelings much more than mine because they can't take a chance on being blacklisted by NHC for saying these things. And for the record, they've been expressing these feelings for years and years. Fay is just a breaking point because it is such an obvious example of what is wrong at NHC.

Actually, more than one encouraged me today to write this. They are tired of having to front for the NHC's forecasts that they know are wrong before even beginning the conference calls they have to make putting out that wrong information.

But forget protecting professional reputations for the moment and let's get back to the wannabes.

Honestly, who out there wants to be on the NHC's diss list? Why do you think the various hurricane web sites that have message boards are so careful to make sure those who rag the NHC lose posting rights? (Sorry, it's a privilege, not a right - I forgot.)

And for the stars of the wannabe ranks, the NHC runs a brilliant PR operation giving out awards to those who find favor. If you are awards-driven, are you going to say anything that might keep you off their short-list of great supporters? In fact, are you even going to allow yourself to be associated with anyone who questions the NHC and its effectiveness?

We all know the answers to those questions. (Am I still allowed to post here?)

4) Hurricane forecasting is BIG, BIG business: We're talking megabucks. Have you ever thought about how much the private company that owns the Florida State Ensemble makes? The University of Florida gave the world Gatorade, and FSU gave the world the ensemble. Which do you think is worth more - an electrolyte replenishment drink that can be easily duplicated, or copyrighted code?

None of these people are going to do anything to jeopardize their business relationship with the NHC. As I noted about Dr. Lyons, he isn't going on the air to tell you to ignore the latest advisory from the NHC; he will dutifully parrot whatever they say, and that's that.

That said, I have to ask this: How does he live with himself knowing that he is nothing but a human robot that will someday be replaced by an avatar?

That's just a start-up list, but you can see where I'm going. The NHC is an incredibly powerful organization with a support group of nearly unequaled power, probably second only in terms of effectiveness to the defense industry. I know the dollars aren't the same, but when it comes to being above question, the military scares you to death with terrorists, and the NHC terrorizes you to death with potential catastrophes. Both have the same message: Fund us, or risk dying because you didn't.

I just got off the phone with my city's mayor. He called to tell me our city manager called him to say that the Escambia County, Florida, EOC was essentially going into shutdown.

"When it comes to hurricanes, I'm convinced now that you know what you're talking about," he said.

I asked him how much money the city blew on this exercise in uselessness.

He didn't have an exact figure, but probably tens of thousands.

Tens of thousands. Think about that. Then multiply it by all the other agencies from the western panhandle of Florida to New Orleans.

But forget the money - my real concern is people: Why didn't the NHC have the intellectual honesty to tell the people the truth - that the western panhandle of Florida, southwest Alabama, all of coastal Mississippi (still having night terrors about Katrina), and the Mississippi delta of Louisiana including New Orleans (speaking of still having night terrors) - all of these people who were put into high-stress by the NHC because it lacked the basic honesty to tell them the truth. That slug of dry air meant its last 18 hours of advisories never had a prayer of occurring.

The next time you wonder why people don't respond to the NHC when they tell people about The BIG One - why 20% of New Orleans stayed because they just didn't believe Katrina would be as bad as advertised - think about all the Fays the NHC fed them first.

Then think about how their above accountability attitude injured the EOCs, the law enforcement officers, how parroting forecasters just reinforced the obviously flawed forecasts, and piled more disbelief on top of past "never had the slightest chance of happening as advertised" forecasts.

Think about it, then ask: At what point do we say to the NHC, "This time you are going to be held accountable. We aren't going to let your budget lust destroy the credibility of all those who are tied to you. You are going to find your excuses are as useless as so many of your forecasts."

Maybe then, with some serious house cleaning and a new set of ethical guidelines, the NHC can be trusted again. But just the same, we'll still need to put an independent watchdog over them.

As Pres. Reagan once said, "Trust. But verify."

It's time to put into place the mechanisms to verify the NHC is earning our trust.
-30-

Fay is deja vu 1997 Danny - from HurricaneCity.com Message Board

2008-08-21T04:00:00.008-05:00

I created this for the HurricaneCity.com Message Board, and wanted to share it with you. I hit the Enter key by accident before I could spell check it, so if you go there, please ignore the typos. But you should go there and tag the Message Board as one of your Favorites - it has great, near-real time information that will give you significant insight on storms, and how they are affecting lives:

Posted by Kenneth E. Lamb (kennethelamb) on 8/21/2008, 4:51 am

If you want a close example of Fay's current behavior, try Hurricane Danny in 1997.

In the words of the NHC's official critique, "On the 16th, 17th, and early on the 18th of July, there were some fairly large underforecasts of the intensity. Part of this was due to an underprediction of the fast strengthening of Danny to a hurricane while it was near the coast, and part was due to moving the cyclone inland too soon in the forecasts."

That's a politically correct history.

I tried to get quotes from the Discussion archives, but 1997 is missing - really - no joke, the NHC doesn't have any of 1997's storm discussions and advisories in its publicly accessible archives!

So here it is from my covering the storm for the Miami Herald when Danny sat in Mobile Bay.

The NHC kept putting out "it's gonna do this, and it's gonna do that" advisories. None occurred as advertised. After 3 days the discussion got so frustrated that the forecaster wrote along the lines of "we don't know what Danny is going to do."

Well, you gotta applaud the guy's honesty.

Fay is Danny deja vu. The NHC and its models go dead when Tropical Cyclones (TCs) move under 5 - 7 knot range. The reliability of the models for Fay are abysmal even without that slow of a speed.

It seems obvious their HWRF has some very serious problems linking up to the globals. You have to have the intellectual honesty to discuss the NHC's devotion to the HWRF. I was appalled the other night when I heard Jim spell out on the video that Fay was nearly dead in the water (movement-wise) south of Cuba, and that the movement to the north had already begun, or at the least it appeared the turn was beginning way earlier than the NHC thought. What happened when Jim noted this?

Some humming and hawing and mumbled rambling why that observation wasn't reality.

Wrong. Jim was all over it. The NHC wasn't.

I see this throughout the process with Fay. IMHO, the NHC is in total submission to its HWRF model. I sometimes feel they think it is an email from God.

There has to be a certain level of respectful disagreement allowed when discussing scientific subjects such as Tropical Cyclone forecasting. The NHC can't be put above criticism when it's merited. Fay is demonstrating some very serious shortcomings at NHC.

In addition to model-devotion, I believe there is a lack of human intervention occurring that adds to the model problem.

Take my story about Jim's program observations, and how they were treated (as I heard them, anyway). The fact is that the storm was not moving any longer, the models were wrong, and knowing it was as undeniable as the recon reports proved.

But this undeniable evidence was being ignored, or at the least, severely discounted. That is exactly what happened with Danny, and this is now happening with Fay.

My points?

1) It is time for a re-evaluation at NHC over its devotion to the models, particularly when they conflict with real data.

2) It's going to take more than a "low confidence" disclaimer to rebuild public confidence in the NHC forecasts. Respectfully, the NHC spends a lot of time in self-righteousness mode, or at the least, self-justification mode. It's never their fault, no matter how poorly they communicated to the public.

3) Looking for loopholes in their discussions to explain away those poor communications just isn't good enough. The NHC is not God; they need to understand it's OK to just spell it out in big, bold letters - "WE DON'T HAVE A CLUE."

The reason it's OK to say that is because we can see that they don't. And it's time to give us credit for being intelligent enough about this area of scientific inquiry to understand that NOBODY has any better clues than they do either. In short, it's OK to be human and admit your limitations.

I've noted where "attitude" is contributing to their problems. And so is "technique" when it undervalues hard data observations.

Hopefully, Fay will be a point where this discussion can begin.
-30-

Jim Williams of Hurricane City on WEBY AM-1330 today

2008-08-21T02:04:00.003-05:00

Jim Williams, the creator and "guru" of the HurricaneCity.com website and Internet broadcasting service will be the featured guest today on WEBY AM-1330's Your Turn program hosted by Kenneth E. Lamb from 5 PM - 6 PM (CDT), Thursday, August 21.

With Fay providing one surprise after another for forecasters, and all significant models showing she will head west somewhere between the north Gulf of Mexico to middle Alabama, his timely appearance will give you a chance to ask him about this storm, the use of models, their reliability, and what he expects to see in the next few days.

You can talk to him directly by dialing 850.623.1330 during the hour. WEBY AM-1330, "Northwest Florida's Talk Radio," streams its Your Turn programming worldwide over the Internet through a beta test site awaiting a final web site makeover. You can go to:

http://cybersmartcomputers.com/

and beginning at 4 PM - 6 PM (CDT) you will see a flashing red "Streaming - On Air!" icon in the upper left-hand side of the page. Click on it, and join the conversation!
-30-

Why has this blog been so quite?

2008-08-20T20:55:00.003-05:00

"Your Link to Link"(tm) Hurricane Blog is directed at hurricanes in the Gulf, or threatening the Gulf. In particular, it focuses on those that may threaten the north central Gulf coastline, known affectionately as "Hurricane Alley."

Right now, Fay is spinning up again off Florida's east coast between Daytona Beach and Melbourne. It has been dropping its eye pressure steadily, while we are seeing an increase in winds. No one will surprised if Fay becomes a hurricane before moving back over land for its projected westward trek.

If Fay reenters the Gulf, or comes close enough to 30 degrees latitude while moving along the Gulf coast, we will re-energize the blog.
-30-

Fay decides to do what she wants to do

2008-08-18T08:19:00.003-05:00

Sometimes there are people in the profession who say it better than you can say it yourself; here is the most accurate discussion on Fay I could find this morning, complete with hyperlinks. You will do well to read it:

Courtesy of Crown Weather

Fay: Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft and satellite imagery are showing that the center of Fay is located over central Cuba this morning. Fay is now tracking North-Northwest at a forward speed of 12 mph.

The latest track model guidance indicates that Fay will continue on this north-northwest heading today into tonight until it reaches the axis of high pressure. Once it does that, it will turn more north and possibly north-northeast on Tuesday.

There continues to be large differences in the track guidance and the run to run consistency of the guidance has been very poor. Given that, the overall forecast track of Fay is still somewhat uncertain with shifts in the forecast track still likely.

Fay has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph this morning with most of these winds occurring just off of the north coast of Cuba. An upper-level low pressure system over the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea is impeding the outflow over the western portion of Fay and some westerly shear is expected to continue for the next day or two. Given this overall pattern, gradual to steady strengthening is expected and Fay is still expected to be a Category 1 hurricane upon landfall.

Fay continues to make me guess on where it may go. The turn to the north-northwest was not expected overnight and Fay is now tracking to the east of all of the track model guidance.

Therefore, for now I am throwing out ALL of the track model guidance and am going more towards tracking the center of Fay using long range radar out of Key West and also using a model called the 4 km WRF/NMM SPC model . This model goes out 36 hours and its model run ends on Tuesday morning. This model is calling for Fay to track just east of Key West and then be very close to the southwest coast of Florida tomorrow morning.

Therefore, based on radar trends and the WRF/NMM model, I expect Fay to track over the Florida Keys either over or perhaps a little east of Key West this evening as a strong tropical storm or marginal Category 1 hurricane. After that, Fay should turn to the north and then north-northeast and come ashore somewhere in the Fort Myers-Naples area of southwest Florida during the early afternoon hours of Tuesday as a Category 1 hurricane. After that, a path similar to the NAM and GFS models are possible and Fay could re-emerge over the Atlantic near Daytona Beach on Wednesday.

After that, there are signs that Fay could stall off of the northeast coast of Florida and strengthen and then doubleback to the west and come ashore again in northern Florida or southern Georgia late this week. At this point, this is a very possible scenario and something to really consider, however, my priority right now is to try to forecast where this storm is going to go over the next couple of days and that is hard enough!

For detailed local information about how Fay will affect Florida, please refer to our Tropical Weather Page.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 8 pm EDT This Evening.

Click For Tropical Weather Information
-30-

How much can a forecast track change?

2008-08-17T17:47:00.004-05:00

I was checking out radar images and found this from the Southwest Florida Water Management District; if you get to the hyperlink by 8 PM CDT tonight, watch the purple line that represents the NHC forecast track issued at 11 AM EDT (10 CDT), then watch it jump to the 5 PM EDT track.

Again, this is why it is way too early to act as if the path is set in stone yet. And along that line of thinking, it also means that the west-ward pointing models - the 3 BAMs and the US Navy's NOGAPS - may be on to something that the others are just now beginning to incorporate.

From our point of view, let's hope not. They all point to Fay paying us a visit. Check out the hyperlink for the phrase "for example" in the discussion about models to see it for yourself.

Cut and paste link:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169358:3194_21178594:3194_21206144:3194_21206152&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

-30-

Hurricane forecasting models

2008-08-17T14:26:00.007-05:00

If you are going to discuss them, you should know what they are, how they work, and what are their limitations. I'm speaking of the computer models used to predict what a tropical cyclone will do going up to five days in the future.

I spent part of this afternoon looking for the best "one stop shop" - or a couple anyway, for informative reviews written in language most people can understand. The links below will take you to the sites.

Once you get there, take time to investigate especially the GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS, GFS, ECMWF, and SHIPS. They are the most commonly cited in the "horse race" commentary that accompanies every storm.

But also understand why I wrote that prediction is an art as well as a science. While all models are similar for the first 24 - 48 hours, after that they can diverge from one another greatly. For example, the GFDL and HWRF sends Fay into central FL, and the NOGAPS says we need to batten down the hatches - here comes Fay! (I didn't just bring up the three flavors of the BAM model, BAMS, BAMM, and BAMD, but it's eating at the forecast community that all three, along with the NOGAPS, takes Fay into the NW FL panhandle. Inquiring minds want to know why . . .)

OK, enjoy yourself on a lazy Sunday afternoon:

1) General article on models with further references for deeper study: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_forecast_model

2) NHC article for the harder core enthusiasts: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

3) In-depth article on the HWRF, the new darling of the NHC: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Weather_Research_and_Forecasting_model
-30-

The latest from my deep background source

2008-08-17T09:47:00.002-05:00

Tropical Update
Sunday, August 17, 2008
8:18 a.m.

DON'T WORRY ABOUT FAY

Pensacola: Enjoy your weekend.

POSITIVE:

Steering winds continue to blow away from Pensacola.
Gulf water temps cannot support monster storm.

FUEL for FAY:

1. The warmest Gulf waters are off Fort Myers.
It's a very small patch, meaning it won't be a huge storm.

2. This won't stop the media hype.

COMPUTER MODELS:

The spaghetti models are over cooked, don't eat them.

WORST CASE SCENARIO:

Pensacola will know Monday at 4 a.m. if action is needed for the area.
+++++

Do clouds overhead foretell a lack of Fay's visit to us?

2008-08-17T09:05:00.012-05:00

If you want to know why it is increasingly unlikely we will see Fay, go outside, look up at the sky, watch the clouds, and then thank your Higher Power. That front that’s been hanging over us for the past couple of days may be the shield that keeps Fay at bay.

On Friday, I got a deep background update on the storm. My inside source remarked two things: on the positive side, the upper wind airflow pushing west to east overhead means Fay would go somewhere else.

On the negative side, he said to “watch the media overhype the storm.” You have to understand why.

The truth is that so far this season, all we’ve seen are barely on the radar rainmakers that closed up a small circulation and made it to tropical cyclone status. The National Hurricane Center (NHC), which needs congressional funding to grow, wants to make its budget a priority, and if the storms aren’t there, the money won’t be either. I’m not trying to be cruel; that’s just the reality of life on the congressional budget system.

Do we want a well-funded NHC? You better believe we do. And so does anyone else who lives along the Gulf or Atlantic coasts, or who is involved with drilling, fishing, or maritime shipping.

But there are very powerful lobbies who consider themselves just as important to their constituencies. So the NHC has to make sure it gets attention paid to its mission, or else someone else is going to get those dollars.

In 2006, this led to a major problem for the NHC. We were coming off the Ivan, Charlie, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma disasters that started in our area in late 2004 and broke all records for tropical activity in 2005.

2006 was dead as a doornail for activity. In today’s world of open internet access to forecasting tools and data, NHC has an incredible group of highly qualified professionals seeing what it sees, and they are equally able to digest the information and come to reasonable conclusions. When the NHC started stretching the envelope – in one case calling a system whose eye was about 200 miles distant from any storm activity to its east, these professionals called “foul!” on the NHC.

When the NHC continued to do it again and again, and then started up 2007 the same way, its need for threats to American shores created a growing backlash. The NHC finally realized they are not in a bubble, but rather are publicaly accountable in a manner it never experienced before. In 2008, it appears they are coming back to the reasonable standards they employed prior to the 2006 season.

Now on the media: Weather news is easy to cover. Everybody is affected, and everybody talks about it. It’s neither liberal nor conservative, Democrat or Republican, left-wing or right-wing . . . in short, none of the slime pool where American politics spends so much time. So you can cover the weather, get a great audience hanging on every word, and not have to put up with all the brain-dead venom.

Thus we get Dolly as an example of a tropical storm that was really a rainmaking bother and not a real tropical threat – that still got days on end of coverage. Fay may turn out to be the same. We’ll know on Monday into Tuesday where it is most likely heading, and to what degree it will be a problem.

And before you take this morning’s latest from the NHC about the storm’s strength as Holy Writ wrote small, please remember what happened with Wilma; despite the fact that NHC supporters outside the formal structure kept telling Coral Gables that Wilma was underforecast by them to be only a strong tropical storm, or weak Cat 1 when it hit south Florida, many outside their walls knew the warm water eddy north of Cuba that dramatically increased the power of the earlier 2005 hurricanes that passed over it would affect Wilma the same way. The NHC ignored that chorus. South Florida paid for it with a tremendously underprepared state of affairs.

This year, right now, the elevated water temperatures north of Cuba could pull a repeat performance that caused both Charlie and Wilma to be underforecast. If you are in southwest Florida, you need to stay up with hour-by-hour wind speed readings inside the storm and not go by just the NHC's Cat rating system alone.

It appears that this year, the need to avoid stretching the envelope of what qualifies as a named storm because NHC wants to get its storm count up, plus being more attentive to strict adherence to the criteria that makes a named storm a named storm, is resulting in a better quality of forecast from NHC. We hope to see it continue that way.

This blog will work to get another post up this evening, but as we’ve said all along, Monday is the best day for telling the most about Fay and its threat to us in the center of Hurricane Alley.
-30-

“Nuting’s fer sure til Monday”

2008-08-16T22:30:00.010-05:00

It’s one of those times in talking about hurricanes when the speculation is far ahead of the probable reality. The NHC has to put up a map, and so we have the west coast of Florida targeted. But the reality is that there is still too much opportunity for all the models to reconfigure the path as we find out what actually happens to the “joker in the deck;” the ridge keeping Fay moving westward.

Here is the way it’s described at Crown Weather ( http://www.crownweather.com/ ): “The overall synoptic situation finds Fay on the south side of a ridge of high pressure with the global models forecasting a weakness in this high pressure ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or over Florida that should allow Fay to turn toward the north-northwest or north after tomorrow evening. There is a large spread in the track model guidance on when and how sharply Fay will turn. The European, NAM and GFDL models are on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. These three models forecast a southeastern Florida landfall. The GFS, HWRF and the consensus models forecast Fay to cross west central Cuba and move near or over the West Coast of the Florida Peninsula. The UKMET and NOGAPS models forecast a motion towards the Florida Panhandle . . .

“This is a very difficult forecast to say the least as any shifts in the track of Fay has large implications on the exact location of landfall on the west coast of Florida. Basically, the smallest shift in track could mean the difference between a landfall up in the eastern Florida Panhandle and a landfall near or just south of Tampa.”

Or up into Florida’s western panhandle if the ridge holds up longer than the global models now predict.

You can check out their updates when, “The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 9 am EDT Sunday morning.” Over at NHC, the 11 PM EDT Discussion noted, “A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN FAY AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IN FACT...GUANTANAMO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AFTER BEING DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA. FAY HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. SURROUNDING SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN ON THE ORDER OF 5 MB SINCE YESTERDAY...AND IN GENERAL THIS IS AN INDICATION OF DEVELOPMENT.”

That’s an understatement. Everyone who’s watched the satellite imagery saw Fay go across Haiti with a tremendous amount of power in its storms to the south of the center. Banding remained impressive for a 40 knot tropical storm, and this latest spinning up surprises no one who knows what to look for in a tropical storm.

As for us, the rule of thumb will be looking for where Fay makes its turn to the northwest and north. If it is east of Havana, we will most likely be in the clear. If it is west of Havana, make sure your generator works.

My advice to people now is to look for that signpost. Nothing significant is going to occur as far as knowing if we are threatened, although I expect to see some significant strengthening south of Cuba over the next 24 hours – as the NHC noted Fay is heading very westward at 275 degrees, or just 5 degrees north of due west. That course means that while the northern semi-circle will continue to have interaction with Cuba’s landmass; the southern semicircle will be pumping itself up over the warms waters off Cuba’s coast.

One last point for tonight: When I did my interview with the National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) Mobile-Pensacola during my CyberSmart! Saturday program this morning (11 – noon Central Time, WEBY AM-1330), I got into a discussion about Gulf water temperatures. They are very impressive in a couple of eddies. You may recall that is what caused Ivan, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma to explode far beyond the NHC’s original predictions. They may very well do that again with Fay.

And looking at the Fay path map, I can’t help but think of Charlie. It made a sharp, unexpected right-hand turn into Charlotte Harbor where my daughter lives with her Charlotte County Fire Department lieutenant husband. But more important, I think of how poorly the NHC handled Charlie’s strength. It was still calling it a Cat 1 when its own WD-88 radar in Key West demonstrated it was a Cat 3.

That poor decision by NHC to not alert residents to the change contributed mightily to the disaster that Charlie brought to the community. I hope they are over that type of thinking.

And yes, being a child of St. Petersburg on the Pinellas County peninsula surrounded by the Gulf on the west, and Tampa Bay on the east, I can’t help but think what a path close to shore on the Gulf side will due to flooding south Pinellas, and Tampa proper. We’ll know by Monday what we can expect with much greater certainty.

-30-

WEBY AM-1330's 25,000-watt signal is your "Link to Life"

2008-08-16T09:37:00.003-05:00

At 25,000 watts, WEBY AM-1330, "Northwest Florida's News Talk Radio," is the most powerful AM radio station on the Gulf coast between New Orleans and Tampa. For north Gulf coast residents between Ft. Walton Beach and New Orleans, inland as far north as an east-west line from Montgomery AL, to Hattiesburg MS, then angling to Metairie LA, it is a station they can count on for its "Your Link to Life" (tm) up-to-the-minute hurricane and severe weather coverage.

This coverage makes WEBY AM-1330 particularly valuable when tropical storms hit the area. In particular, Mike Bates, the station's owner, ensures Santa Rosa residents receive EOC information. Benefiting all listeners, he has arranged the station’s own network of hurricane experts to explain what is going on in the Gulf.

“Radio stations forget Santa Rosa County,” Mr. Bates said. “Because it is our city-of-license county, WEBY AM-1330 focuses on the county more than any other AM or FM station, with the strength to also cover residents in the rest of the Pensacola Bay Area. Our mission is to be the Pensacola Bay Area community’s ‘Link to Life’ with its hurricane coverage.”

Mr. Bates regularly gets call from listeners burrowed inside downtown Pensacola's steel-framed buildings. In fact, one caller told him WEBY AM-1330 and WRNE AM-980 are the only AM signals he can get on Perdido Key.
-30-

Mr. Lamb will serve this hurricane season as one of WEBY’s hurricane experts. Be sure to set your dial to WEBY AM-1330, “Northwest Florida’s Talk Radio.”

Stay abreast this hurricane season by bookmarking this blog (or by adding it to Favorites if you use Internet Explorer). The copy and paste address for the "Your 'Link to Life' (tm) Gulf Hurricane Blog" is: http://gulfhurricanes.blogspot.com/